Survey samplings scanty for senators

First he predicted a sure win because, by feng shui, 2004 is his year. Then, when his poll ratings stagnated at only 11 percent, he began seeing ghosts, wailing that Malacañang is pushing a no-election scenario.

No, that’s not Eddie Gil, the presidential race’s comic relief whom Comelec kill-joys have disqualified, but Ping Lacson, the senator who can be comical in his own right.

National Security Adviser Bert Gonzales does not deign to ask what proof Lacson has for making such indictment. He only snorts at the former National Police chief, who used to build leaky cases against crime suspects through fantastic tales: "A candidate who’s leading all the surveys, which President Gloria Arroyo is, would want the election to push through. It’s one who’s at the tail end who would want to spoil things."

Lacson’s reason for seeing No-El in the movie in his mind does seem preposterous. He said two of his loyalists, Supts. Aurelio Trampe in vote-poor Agusan province and a certain Ranada, have been pulled out of their posts. How the transfer of two PNP junior officers out of 4,500 can mean a Palace plot to thwart the election, only Lacson knows. He didn’t explain, or perhaps the reporters couldn’t understand his ramblings. But Lacson did get the momentary limelight he wants, perhaps to boost his ratings. Which shows how his campaign has degenerated to publicity stunts.

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Lacson does not believe in surveys, of course. That his standing has rippled undramatically – 11.5, 8.4, 11.4, 11.2, 10.6 percent in five Social Weather Station polls during the campaign – means nothing to him. "It’s hogwash, I was only number 15 in the 2001 senatorial surveys," he says, "yet I made it to the winning circle."

Lacson’s scoff at polls can have basis, but not for the reason he cites. The SWS and rival Pulse Asia have always been on the ball in forecasting presidential and vice presidential races. They pinpointed Fidel Ramos’s narrow victory over Miriam Santiago and five other contenders in ’92, and Joseph Estrada’s landslide against Jose de Venecia and eight others in ’98. There’s a science to polling.

It’s the senatorial races that the pollsters miss, though. And this has something to do with the number of respondents versus seats at stake. The presidency and vice are one-man posts. From 1,200 to 4,800 respondents, representing all social classes and geographical regions, are asked for just one choice. Not true for the Senate, where the same sampling is asked who among four to eight dozen candidates they would want in the Magic 12.

The sample size simply is too small to predict the winners and their standings. In 2001 it took SWS 11,000 exit-poll respondents to determine the 13 winners (one extra to replace then-senator Tito Guingona who rose to vice president two months earlier).

So, with present survey samplings designed mainly for presidential bets, the Senate race is still anybody’s game.

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Be that as it may, Senate President Franklin Drilon is sounding the alarm in Arroyo’s K-4 coalition. Pulse Asia’s latest survey showed K-4 tied with Fernando Poe Jr.’s KNP at 6-6; same with SWS’s. Drilon says this would lead to a slim 13-11 administration majority in the Senate. Which means more of the same uncontrollable politicking and blockade by the opposition minority of urgent bills. More so if Arroyo wins by a slim margin of five percent, or 1.5 million votes, as Lakas president Speaker Jose de Venecia predicts. For this would mean more of the same destabilization and coup plots by the vicious segment of the opposition.

That segment’s view of democracy has been tried and tested. It uses democratic space, such as elections, to promote undemocratic ends, such as a military junta. It is adept at using democratic rights, such as freedom of speech and of assembly, or parliamentary immunity, to agitate ignorant hordes to assault Malacañang or the Supreme Court. It does not recognize defeat in a fair election. If thrashed in this one, it will surely cry fraud and take to the streets, as it did in Jan. 2001 when the SC upheld the legality of Arroyo’s ascent to the Presidency, in May 2001 when it led the attack on Malacañang, and last Feb. while the Comelec and then the SC heard FPJ’s citizenship case.

By contrast, decent citizens, although terribly fearful of an FPJ win, know how to accept their fate. They did not rise in arms when the Comelec and the SC allowed FPJ to run despite his hazy American parentage. They accepted the decisions as rule of law.

Drilon thus has reason to fear the present trend. So far scoring from the K-4 are: Mar Roxas, Bong Revilla, Miriam Santiago, John Osmeña, Lito Lapid and Dick Gordon. From the KNP: Fred Lim, Juan Ponce Enrile, Nene Pimentel, Ernie Maceda, Jinggoy Estrada and Jamby Madrigal. Although close behind are the K-4’s Rodolfo Biazon, Robert Barbers, Orly Mercado and Pia Cayetano.

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Interestingly, the number of undecided respondents for president steadily has risen in the five SWS surveys since January: 5.4, 6.1, 6.6, 7.6, 10.9 percent. Apparently, voters started off with favorites in mind, then began weighing them against new information on other candidates as the campaign wore on.

Only two presidential bets have consistently risen, though. Arroyo: 26.5, 28.7, 31.8, 31.4, 35.3 percent. And Eddie Villanueva: 1.0, 1.7, 1.8, 2.2, 4.0 percent. They apparently gained from Raul Roco’s slump: 19.2, 17.4, 17.9, 15, 8.4 percent, more so with his sudden flight to the US for medical treatment. FPJ’s supposed typhoon campaign has been fizzling out: 36.3, 37.5, 30.2, 32, 30.8 percent.

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