Elusive merger

There is something distinctly bizarre about this business of conducting "unification talks" between the Poe-led KNP and the Lacson-led LDP: it is an activity done with the least sense of urgency.

It is as if the "unification talks" is the last thing either presidential candidate would want to do. It is as if this is a chore that they are constrained to undertake to please faceless powerbrokers.

Of the two parties in this on-again, off-again project, it is Poe’s partisans that seem more anxious to see it happen. Former president Joseph Estrada, the principal benefactor of the Poe campaign, wanted a unified opposition bloc as a birthday gift.

That did not happen.

The talks scheduled last Monday between the two presidential candidates failed to materialize because of "scheduling problems." That sounds like the meeting was a bother. It was not important enough to cancel a sortie or interfere with the thousand other things a candidate must do during the day.

The public utterances of both Lacson and Poe suggest extreme disinterest in doing "unification." Neither has presented the public any clear idea about how "unification" could be made operational.

Partisans of Lacson have said publicly that "unification" can become meaningful only if Poe withdraws from the presidential race and/or runs as vice-president. After all, say Lacson supporters, their candidate is the more qualified of the two to become president.

Partisans of Poe, for their part, think Lacson ought to withdraw from the presidential race and/or slide down to be a vice presidential bet because their candidate is the more popular of the two. Last Monday, text messages proliferated saying Lacson had agreed to be Poe’s vice-presidential bet while Loren Legarda has slid down to the senatorial slate.

Lacson seems to be thinking of "unification talks" as nothing more than a coordination meeting to share poll-watchers. In which case, this does not require a meeting of the principals. Such a meeting could very well be done by underlings of the two candidates.

Poe, for his part, has not said enough to give us a clear idea of what he thinks the talks should be about. But from the grunts and mumblings and one-word sentences he makes whenever he finds the confidence to allow reporters to grill him, it seems he is expecting a merger of the two campaigns with himself as standard-bearer.

After last Monday’s scheduled meeting fell through, Lacson said they could meet in Mindanao next week. That seems too late to do anything that could change the tides.

Tuesday morning, a Poe spokesman said a meeting could be arranged that day. As the day wore on, no schedule for this one-on-one between Poe and Lacson materialized.

It is understandable that the Poe campaign would want Lacson to withdraw. The decomposition of the voter preference surveys shows Poe would be a distinct beneficiary of a Lacson withdrawal. That should be enough to close the gap revealed by Pulse Asia’s latest survey showing President Gloria running 3 percent ahead of Poe.

Whatever Poe stood to gain from a Lacson withdrawal, however, could easily be cancelled out by the additional votes President Gloria stands to collect from the collapsing Roco campaign and, indeed, from the collapsing Poe campaign.

In which case, a Lacson withdrawal would merely compound the loss. Lacson will lose face by surrendering to pressures from the Estrada camp; and Poe will lose anyway.

The Poe camp seems to be pinning too much hope on a Lacson withdrawal to elevate their candidate to the presidency. That reinforces their tactical indolence.

Instead of betting everything on a Lacson withdrawal from the race, they should put some more effort at doing the reinvention of their campaign – as they have themselves promised.

Before the Holy Week break, Poe’s drumbeaters promised a more organized campaign, a more articulate candidate and a clearer message to the public. But no New Poe resurrected after Easter. No new campaign is evident, other than the attack ads taken by front groups of the Poe campaign.

Instead of a New Poe, what we saw after the Easter break was a succession of defections from the KNP campaign.

Instead of telling us what they intend to do, Poe’s propagandists are focusing on a hate campaign against the Arroyo administration. The sort of noise they make is no different from the same hate campaign being mounted by Lacson and Roco partisans. They are trying to smear President Gloria as a choice but have done nothing to convince voters of the unique selling points of their candidates.

Against President Arroyo’s detailed and focused program of government, all the other candidates offer the electorate only bile and venom. The messages of the challengers all blend into a tasteless mash that vainly covers up lack of positive vision.

Each day that passes takes the drama out of whatever the outcome of the Poe-Lacson "unification talks" might be. There is lesser suspense and, very likely, greater exasperation on the part of the supporters of both camps.

Unwittingly, all this running to and fro, all this directionless effort at "unification" could cause a backlash harming both candidacies.

All the speculation about Lacson withdrawing from the race tests the morale of this candidate’s campaign workers. If their candidate is withdrawing anyway, why put any more effort at winning votes?

In the case of the Poe campaign, all this bizarre noise about unification talks delivers a dangerous subtext to this candidate’s supporters: Poe can only have a crack at winning if Lacson withdraws.

If, in the end, Lacson does not withdraw, then Poe’s supporters will accept defeat as inevitable. In the last leg of this campaign period, Poe’s already shaky campaign organization could simply unravel.

In the last analysis, all the tentative, directionless and secretive maneuvers going on around the puzzling idea of "unification talks" could take a toll on both the campaigns of Poe and Lacson. If nothing happens in the next few days, what was once advertised as a "tsunami" of a campaign could end up reaping a whirlwind of dismay from voters who expected miracles to be pulled by a candidate once falsely billed as "invincible."