Erap wins, whether it’s Poe or Lacson

Barring any missed calls, Fernando Poe Jr. and Panfilo Lacson will meet today at the rest house of deposed president Joseph Estrada. The tete-a-tete is significant for its impact and implications. This would be their last chance to attempt to unite their opposition forces against Gloria Arroyo’s snowballing campaign for a full presidential term. Should one of them agree to slide off the race, their combined strength can thwart Arroyo’s bid. More than that, their main backers’ long-cherished aims for political and economic comeback would be achieved.

That the meeting will be hosted by birthday celebrant Estrada is an omen of things to come. If Poe and Lacson forge unity, the winner against Arroyo will owe it all to Estrada. Necessarily, either Poe or Lacson will have to repay that political debt of gratitude. That would mean, at the very least, special treatment for Estrada, like unconstitutional house arrest, for the duration of his trial for the heinous crime of plunder. Most likely, though, a Poe or Lacson presidency would simply lose the plunder case, by missing court deadlines and weak arguments and other tried-and-tested ways of taking a dive. For, what man like Poe would pursue the conviction of his best friend, which Estrada is, for a crime that could fetch the death sentence or life imprisonment? Or, what person like Lacson would ignore personal pleas of a former boss, which Estrada was since 1992, to be set free to his many mistresses?

The veteran politician that is Estrada knows how to get his way, even if under police custody. With no official furlough from the Sandiganbayan that is trying his case, Estrada frequently has been able to leave his detention quarters in Camp Capinpin by lavishing his guards with expensive gifts. When that story broke and a shame-faced Arroyo tried to explain away the infidelity to duty of her police generals as compassion for a former president, Estrada took the opportunity to lambaste her further before his loyalists. Before that, Estrada was able to impose his will on Poe, who at the start of the campaign was dissociating from him. But Estrada had provided the initial funds for the campaign. In exchange, Poe had to insert Estrada’s son and plunder coaccused Jinggoy, merely out on bail for medial treatment, in his senatorial lineup. It was a bare contradiction with his claim to abide by Vice President Teofisto Guingona’s campaign against political dynasties. Estrada’s wife, Jinggoy’s mother, is an incumbent senator. And here is anti-dynasty Poe foisting on the electorate a possible mother-and-son Senate circus. Estrada’s return, as one of the powers behind the throne, is ensured with a Poe victory.

So with Lacson’s, if Poe is the one who’ll withdraw. Apart from their superior-subordinate relationship, Estrada and Lacson know each other too well. They have had many common exploits. Unrefuted affidavits have it that the Presidential Anti-Crime Commission, which Estrada headed as vice president in 1992-1998 and of which Lacson was head of one task force, had killed two women who couldn’t tell where their wanted kin was. Too, that Estrada’s seed funds for his 1998 presidential run came from kidnapping for ransom, which Lacson tolerated for a while until things became too hot. It would be wise for persons who are thick as thieves to scratch each other’s back.

Estrada is not the only one aching for a comeback in case Poe or Lacson wins. The Marcoses too, and their cronies, are waiting in the wings. The Marcoses got a breathing spell from their many criminal and civil cases during Estrada’s short-lived presidency. His appointees in the Presidential Commission on Good Government reversed years of case buildups by past administrations. The entry of Arroyo in 2001, on the shoulders of civil society, foiled what could have been their complete exoneration by default of government. Now they see hope for recovering ill-gotten wealth — for themselves by lifting PCGG sequestrations — primarily in Poe. Perhaps the man is too naïve and easily swayed. But in his sortie to Ilocos Norte, he laid a wreath at the mausoleum on the dictator Ferdinand Marcos’ on the advise of ninang Imelda Marcos and to the dismay of Poe’s supporters from the Left. If the symbolism of the act of fealty was lost on anybody, Imelda rubbed it in by saying that Poe, as president, would continue the work of Marcos. For Imelda, that "work" supposedly is about helping the poor, but history shows, from officialo Congress records, that the Plunder Law was enacted precisely because of what Marcos did to the economy. Part of the recovered Marcos wealth has been spent by government on agrarian reform. A portion is being blocked off to recompense victims of martial law torture. The bukj is still being contested in the Philippines, Europe and America. Asked what he will do about it, Poe said he needs to study the matter first. The cases of his godmother Imelda have dragged for two decades yet constantly headlined by newspapers, yet Poe feigns knowledge about it. That cannot be out of ignorance but of sly avoidance of the issue – until the right time comes to favor the Marcoses.

The Marcoses would back Lacson, of course, if Poe backs out. Any opposition victory will be to their advantage. And, like Estrada, they are adept at getting what they want from persons they help put in power. They have a foot in the door of Lacson’s campaign headquarters. The dozen or so retired police and military generals in Lacson’s core group had owned their careers to Marcos.

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