Realignments

You’ve probably heard this doomsday scenario by now: our weak republic will be lost in the wilderness for the next 12 to 18 years.

Why?

The answer is another question: What would you expect after six years of Fernando Poe Jr. followed by six years of vice presidential shoo-in Noli de Castro? There’s disagreement on who will succeed De Castro, but for now the betting seems to be on another actor, Bong Revilla, who’s running for the Senate based on his record in local government and in playing cat and mouse with the film pirates of Quiapo and Greenhills.

I know what the FPJ camp will say: this doomsday scenario is being painted by the administration. And the FPJ (and Ping Lacson) camp could respond with yet another question: Would you rather have six more years of Jose Pidal?

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Yet the jitters are there, with people unsure which are more accurate: the fortune-tellers’ predictions of an FPJ win, or the surveys of Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia, which give President Arroyo a slight lead over Poe.

The defection of Vice President Teofisto Guingona Jr. could calm jitters and earn FPJ some respect. But my guess is the calm will be as short-lived as the initial positive effect of the defection of Sen. Loren Legarda and the announcement of the composition of Poe’s economic team.

It’s no secret that Guingona has been trying to find a new political home for some time. His differences with the President were well documented and his departure from her camp was just a matter of time.

It won’t take long, however, before people start wondering why he bolted to the camp of FPJ, bosom buddy of the president whose ouster Guingona helped trigger with a celebrated speech against corruption.

It would have been more in keeping with his principles if Guingona had joined the camp of Raul Roco. But then Guingona must be aware that neither the pollsters nor the fortune-tellers see Roco as a winner in May. A trend has emerged in the presidential race. Who wants to align himself with a loser?

So Guingona has decided to place his bet on the camp that includes Erap and son Jinggoy, Juan Ponce Enrile and Didagen Dilangalen.

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Guingona is so much more qualified than FPJ (and many other politicians) to become president of this poor republic. Yet we all know what will happen if ever Guingona barnstorms for the presidency: his audience will be snoring five minutes into his oratory. That someone with the stature of Guingona must content himself with joining Poe’s growing list of babysitters is a national tragedy.

Will we ever break this trend of picking national leaders based on popularity and personality cults? Some foreign observers tell me this has gone on for some time here and they no longer worry too much about whoever wins the presidency. "We believe you Filipinos will muddle through," a foreigner told me.

It’s like saying we’ll still be around after 12 to 18 years. What shape the nation will be in by then is another story.

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This fear – irrational as it might turn out to be – is prompting national leaders to consider drastic reforms of the political system.

We’ve heard most of the proposals. One is to amend the Constitution as soon as the winner in May is sworn in so we can shift to a parliamentary system. Another is to shift to a two-party system and penalize political butterflies.

Sen. Manuel Villar, who dropped by The STAR office last week for a chat with editors, said we can adopt something similar to the selection process in the United States, where aspirants for the presidency must be chosen by their peers in party primaries. That way, the cream can rise.

Villar pointed out that in the House of Representatives, where he was the speaker who presided over Erap’s impeachment, show biz popularity counts for nothing. Incompetent House members are quickly exposed and relegated to the so-called committee on silence, never to shine during their three-year term.

One thing Villar has overlooked: presidential aspirants in this country do go though a vetting process in political parties. But the main consideration in the vetting process is winnability, which in this country is often synonymous with popularity.

Often a new party is formed to support a presidential aspirant, with politicians bolting their camps and joining the new party of the potential winner.

Will this system change in 12 to 18 years? Don’t hold your breath.

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THE BOY FROM BRAZIL: A letter from Vicente T. Villegas, who listed his address at 6745 Ayala Avenue, pointed out that Brazil’s President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, after initial market jitters over his election in October 2002, has managed to turn around the Brazilian economy and has earned plaudits from various quarters including The New York Times.

Lula reportedly said at his inaugural: "If at the end of my mandate all Brazilians have the possibility to eat breakfast, lunch and dinner, I will have fulfilled the mission of my life." (OK, folks, now you know where that campaign spiel came from.)

Villegas (any relation to FPJ economic adviser Bernardo Villegas?) noted that Lula is a fifth grade dropout. "You and others may be right that Mr. Fernando Poe Jr. is not the right man for the job of President of the Philippines," Villegas wrote me. "If that is the case, I hope someone from among our fifth grade dropouts will soon enough rise to the occasion like President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil."

Lula is truly reaping praise especially for standing up for the emerging economies of the Third World. It must be pointed out, however, that Lula would know something about economics and poverty, having been born so poor he had to shine shoes and sell newspapers and peanuts in his youth. Unlike FPJ, who was born to a movie star father and an American mother, Lula did not even get to meet his father until he was seven years old.

At 14 Lula dropped out of school and found work as a lathe operator, laying the foundations for his future calling as a left-wing union organizer. He developed a reputation for being a firebrand labor leader and took on Brazil’s authoritarian regimes, at one point spending time in prison. Lula lost three bids for the presidency before finally winning in 2002 amid massive public discontent over the administration of his predecessor.

Nope, an FPJ he’s not.