American intervention is possible

With the FPJ disqualification case now out of the way, we can now work on having credible elections. Everyone can at least now breathe easier. The Supreme Court’s swift decision was, more than being judicious, it was the best thing that they have done in recent years. It lowered an-xiety levels because of fears of civil unrest and military intervention. As indicated by the market, stocks went up and the peso recovered from an inevitable downtrend.

The latest SWS and Pulse Asia surveys indicated that FPJ could lose. It is shaping up to be a close race, for now. FPJ’s momentum has been blunted, that of GMA’s is steadily rising. One of them should clearly lead by a comfortable margin so that there is no doubt, in everyone’s mind, that the elections were clean and honest. If we are to believe what Spokesboy Mike Defensor claimed that GMA will win by five million votes then that would certainly be a clear and solid mandate. The way things are going, FPJ could potentially lose. His campaign operations are in disarray. His campaign organization has no backbone, no unifying element so far. There are just too many factions within the FPJ camp. The situation is compounded by FPJ’s refusal to let his campaign be run by professional political managers. His being a political novato is now beginning to work against him.

At the Asian Institute of Management’s (AIM) Globalization Lecture Series last week, Dr. Donald Weatherbee, a Fellow of the University of Southern Carolina’s Walker Institute of International Studies, delivered his lecture on "911 and the Impact on US Foreign Policy in SEA". The context of the lecture centered on revitalized RP-US relations and the history of "special" relations between the two nations.

Before 9/11, the US focused on globalization. President Clinton advocated a Pacific Community with 3 pillars: Economic, Security, & Political Democratization. That polity was shattered by 911. The Post-911 US Policy focused on the promotion of its security interests. The US once again linked itself with SEA allies to become an activist force. After the US liberated Iraq, the alliance formed a web of cooperation that has now come full circle. The US and its regional allies have realized that terrorism and instability are best addressed in the economic, security, & political democratization spheres. That is why recent political events have rung alarm bells.

The FPJ disqualification hearings really tensed up the nation for the past two weeks. The Americans are looking at orderly elections as crucial to RP’s stability. They want this nation to strengthen its democratic institutions, reform the Constitution, and cut down on the corruption that saps the nation of its lifeblood. It comes as no surprise that the Hong Kong-based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy ranked the Philippines as the fourth most corrupt country in the world.

Their plan to send former Sen. Richard Lugar and a 50-man election observation team is a strong signal. As a matter of fact, a large force of political officers, counter-terrorism operatives, and drug enforcement agents have been deployed to closely monitor the country. A clear indication of their deep concern on the country’s current state.

Despite successes against the Abu Sayyaf Gang (ASG), the intelligence network still finds the stubborn NPA presence deeply disturbing. In terms of threat assessment, the NPA‚s operations and reach present a bigger problem than the separatist groups in Mindanao and the Kidnap for Ransom (KFR) gangs. They continue to extort money from businessmen and candidates. They assassinate private citizens and government officials without compunction. The Americans have not forgotten the assassination of Col. James Rowe. They don’t want Rowe’s assassins to be released on the legal pretext that they were political prisoners. They are plainly terrorists. For these reasons, it is unlikely that the NPA will soon be removed from the terrorist list.

A major concern now is the State Department’s recent report naming the Philippines as one of the biggest producers of shabu and marijuana in the world. The Bureau of Immigrations has allowed waves of mainland Chinese gangsters to live here and to set up drug labs. With 3.4 million drug addicts, a UN study reported that Filipinos ranked third in consumption of shabu. About 13 transnational drug rings and 175 local drug syndicates have made drugs a P216-B industry two years ago to a P432-B industry last year. The menace of a political system dominated by drug lords looms large.

The May 10 election is one of the key elements in stabilizing the country’s democratic system. That is why the US is looking at it very closely and is sending an international monitoring team to make sure that this happens. After May 10, they would like to work closely with the new government to initiate economic and political reforms most especially cutting down on the rampant corruption that is now bringing us to the brink of becoming a "narco" state. GMA is right. The relations between RP and US has never been closer, which is good for the country. Depending, of course, on which side you’re on. If the political situation becomes unstable, it is, indeed, very possible that the Americans will intervene. Just like what they did in Haiti a few days ago.

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