Unity

If the opposition wants to guarantee the defeat of President Arroyo in May, it better field a unified ticket soon.

Sure, actor Fernando Poe Jr. can now breathe easy after being declared a natural-born citizen fit to run for president.

The talk is that his disqualification case has created so much bad blood between at least two members of the Supreme Court, both of them identified with President Arroyo. That could be bad news for the President.

One justice reportedly insisted that Poe be disqualified outright, instead of the case simply being remanded to either the Commission on Elections or the Court of Appeals, as envisioned last week. The other justice, in his pique, decided to get it over with by throwing out the petitions and letting FPJ run. We all know which side won.

Poe, however, can’t breathe easy with the results of the latest Social Weather Stations survey. President Arroyo is understandably exulting over the good news. Her lead over Poe may be small at 1.3 percent, but it was a big leap from the numbers in the SWS survey taken before the start of the campaign last month, when Poe held a commanding lead of 8.3 percent over the President. And the latest SWS poll results are very close to those in the latest Pulse Asia survey.

Another poll taken by SWS can hardly be reassuring for Poe. In a statement released yesterday, SWS reported that Poe enjoyed the highest number of supporters — 54 percent – who had made up their minds about voting for him in May. But the President was not far behind, with 51 percent of those planning to vote for her saying they would no longer change their mind.

Even Poe’s blood ties to SWS head Mahar Mangahas is working in the President’s favor. During the administration of Poe’s bosom friend Joseph Estrada, people liked to point out that FPJ’s late mother Bessie Kelley was the sister of Mahar’s mom Ruby Kelley Mangahas, People unhappy with SWS results used to invoke those ties to discredit Mahar. Now, with SWS results showing Mahar’s first cousin falling behind the President, those blood ties are adding to the credibility of the pollster.

If FPJ isn’t worried about the latest surveys, he is even more clueless than his detractors think.

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Reputable surveys have shown that the President has been pole-vaulting past her rivals since declaring her entry in the race last year. In contrast, her former education secretary Raul Roco, the IBON databank favorite who used to top almost all surveys of potential presidential aspirants, has steadily dropped in ranking. If Roco can jettison his running mate plus some characters in his Senate slate, thus proving to voters that he’s serious about his bid, there could be hope for him.

Otherwise, everyone will agree that this early, the race has narrowed down to the President, now the front-runner, and Poe.

With two more months in the campaign, Poe has sufficient time to self-destruct. A few more memorable performances like the one he gave in his interview with our publisher Max V. Soliven on Impact 2004 and FPJ’s ratings could plunge. Even star-struck voters can tolerate only enough answers tantamount to a "duh…" before they start worrying about the future of their children.

Poe is reportedly unaware even of his own platform of government, which his supporters have drawn up and released to those interested. It’s like trying to plant ideas on constantly shifting sand dunes; nothing can take root. When his camp answers his detractors, the statements are attributed not to him but to his party, the Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino.

Watching Poe "da action king" in action – not on screen but in real life, without a script and without a chance for several takes of the same scenes – you almost miss the voluble Erap, who was never at a loss for words or jokes, whether in Tagalog or tortured English, Erap who knew how to make fun even of his critics.

Two months is a long time to skirt speeches and avoid debates on national TV. Can Poe last out a vicious campaign?

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Poe and his supporters may be too proud to admit it, but as things stand, their best bet if they want to drive Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo out of Malacañang is to unite with the camp of Panfilo Lacson.

The opposition senator may be lagging behind his rivals in the surveys, but the numbers show he commands enough support to guarantee an opposition victory in case he unites with Poe. The question is who’s willing to give way.

Lacson has expressed willingness to discuss unity with Poe. Each time he hears from the camp of Sen. Edgardo Angara, however, Lacson seems to lose interest. As of yesterday, the word from Lacson was that he had no plans of dropping out of the presidential race.

Obviously the administration is ecstatic that the opposition remains split. Perhaps the next survey, expected in three or four weeks, can prompt a change of heart among opposition leaders.

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PERVERTS PART II: It’s good to know that the Advertising Board as well as the Movie and Television Review and Classification Board have taken cognizance of complaints about the Napoleon brandy ad teasing alcoholics about tasting a 15-year-old. The impact is worst when the ad is on giant billboards. This is the greatest advertisement to inflict on the public during Women’s Month. The geniuses who conceived and approved this ad must have been drunk on Napoleon brandy, salivating over 15-year-olds.