Much ado about presidential race

A story goes that Fernando Poe Jr. was very much against the May 1, 2001 assault on Malacañang by loyalists of his bosom pal Joseph Estrada. Spread only in whispers by his presidential campaigners, FPJ supposedly had wanted to go to EDSA-Tres to tell the mob to disperse, just that he was stopped by political hawks. If true, this gives voters an insight on the man who would be king not only of Philippine movies but the Philippines itself. He is one to promote rule of law rather than mob rule to resolve conflict.

Yet some of those hawks are now in his senatorial slate – and in Malacañang’s as well. The same agitators of slum dwellers in 2001, with Estrada, are talking of widespread unrest if FPJ is disqualified by lawful authorities from running if proven to not be of natural Filipino birth. FPJ has belittled the dire forecasts in a business forum. But recurring tales of a violent streak after having a drink too many leave businessmen unassured. He thus got zero in a poll of whom they think would make the best leader.

FPJ’s mere announcement in November of a presidential run had sent the stock market tumbling. Since the start of the year talks of military putsches also have pulled down the peso, according to analysts. One such plot gave itself away with a television interview to hoot the defense chief into resigning. Despite the prompt arrest of the plotters, people still wonder how many captains are still out there with the same aim of subverting civilian supremacy over the military. Another is a supposed intelligence scan that no less than military colonel-turned-senator Gregorio Honasan, now in charge of FPJ’s security, would have him assassinated to give way to a junta. With at least four confederates in failed coups in the ’80s stating that Honasan had once promised them to himself rub out his ally Estrada just before the latter’s impeachment, the report finds credence. Compounding public jitters is an Oplan No-El (no election) being pushed by disgruntled supporters of President Gloria Arroyo. With the Comelec disgraced by the Supreme Court’s voiding of its flawed bidding for automated counters, the No-El proponents are calling on the military to take over temporarily to restore public confidence in government.

That FPJ’s mere candidacy – and possible disqualification – can set investors packing up in panic is only one side of the story, of course. The other side is the administration’s own moves, or lack of it. The rise in food prices even after the Christmas rush can only be due to poor supply monitoring and planning by Cabinet members. The bickering of Senate and House leaders on whether to reenact the 2003 budget is causing uncertainties about infrastructure projects already in the pipeline. Faltering confidence in the economy and political stability can be blamed on both the trouble-makers as well as on the authorities who weakly accommodate personalities instead of strictly upholding the law.

It is said that the masa decides who becomes President while the middle class decides if that President should stay in power. Putting numbers in the equation, so-called thinking voters lament that 35 percent of the electorate is uneducated, easily enamored by celebrity, and prone to selling their vote. That 35 percent, they say, forms the core of FPJ’s support. Thus, his consistent lead in surveys since his November declaration.

Viewed from the other end, that equation simply means that 65 percent of voters are smart enough to discern platforms from personalities. Yet they are too stupid to unite for their own good.

The thinking voters are said to be split between Mrs. Arroyo and her former education secretary Raul Roco. Political observers say that if Mrs. Arroyo and Roco join forces, they could command 46 percent of the vote, based on the latest Social Weather Station survey that rate them 27 and 19 percent, respectively. That would be millions of ballots ahead of FPJ’s 36-percent rating at present.

But the question is: Who will give way? Roco’s camp says it should be Mrs. Arroyo. The argument is that he had joined the race months before the President declared that she wouldn’t run, giving him the edge in building a campaign machinery at the grassroots. Mrs. Arroyo’s side counters that despite the headstart, Roco has not organized a credible campaign. This, they say, shows in his choice of vice presidential runningmate, his failure to form a complete senatorial ticket, and the announcement of all six governors in his own Bicol region to support somebody else.

The arguing has only cast Mrs. Arroyo and Roco farther apart. With prospects of their unity dimming, the worries about an FJP victory all the more scares businessmen. And such jitters lead to restrained expansion plans, or even to moves to trim down and lay off workers.

All this, even before the campaign has yet to formally commence next week.

In the end, it is not the middle class or the masa who will make the President, but the dozen or so biggest businessmen who donate billions of pesos just before Election Day. A presidential candidate would need P2 billion to win. Two-thirds of the amount will be spent on campaigning. The last third, on guarding the long manual count. The Comelec has refused to heed proposals on shortening the manual count to only two days from the usual two weeks. The fate of the candidates will depend on their feeding and paying three daily shifts of watchers, with two watchers per shift, in 230,000 polling precincts and 1,500 canvassing centers. Their funding will in turn depend on who the dozen donors will deem to be the likely winners two to three weeks before the ballots are cast.

No wonder a growing number of young voters are contemplating not to vote anymore.

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