October surprise

By October, will we have forgotten a promise made in December 2002, that Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is no longer running in the 2004 presidential race?

That’s what President Arroyo’s husband and other drumbeaters must be hoping for. They’re certainly busy these days trying to soften up the public to the prospect of a presidential change of mind come October or November.

The crop of potential presidential contenders – one of the most lackluster ever – must be emboldening the administration. Lakas-CMD stalwarts and Cabinet members are busy with the zarzuela of persuading the President to change her mind.

Administration spinmeisters have already been burned by their news leak about an endorsement from Manila Archbishop Jaime Cardinal Sin. The ailing Sin had to clarify that he merely encouraged the President to run in 2004. Worse, he had to add that there could be other equally qualified candidates and he was encouraging all of them to consider running.

First Gentleman Mike Arroyo himself is particularly busy leaking news all over the place about this and that head of government (among them US President George W. Bush) allegedly endorsing President Arroyo’s election bid. Now why should foreign leaders get involved in Philippine politics?

Also, does Malacañang actually believe an endorsement by the US president would matter to the Philippine electorate? It could even turn off some voters. Many Filipinos are "Amboys" at heart, and colonial mentality did not disappear with the US bases. But Bush isn’t exactly a popular US president.

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While George W. may be genuinely fond of his phone pal GMA, you can sense growing American concern about the Arroyo administration. There was that advocacy paper from the American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, Inc., detailing concerns and proposing some remedies. I’ve been told by reliable sources that while Washington thinks President Arroyo is a capable person, US officials are dismayed by her style of governance and inconsistent policies.

In case you haven’t noticed, the Americans have even become antsy about pushing through with the Balikatan joint military exercises in Sulu. Balikatan in late December? December 2004 seems more likely.

"There is a sense that the Abu Sayyaf is not a priority of the Philippine government right now. So why should it be our priority?" a US official told me. "We feel that we should just wait for the political winds to settle down."

The military exercises are stuck in the limbo of new wording in the terms of reference (TOR) for the next Balikatan. The original plan was simply to adopt the previous TOR, which turned out to be so innocuous and boring all the grandstanding politicians dropped the subject as soon as the document saw print.

This time a new clause is being added, meant to give a more precise definition of the role of US troops. A joint statement about the war games, released by the two governments during President Arroyo’s recent state visit to Washington, read something like: "The United States will provide support to AFP-led combat operations against the Abu Sayyaf group."

Apparently, even the phrase "AFP-led combat operations" has raised enough concern in the Arroyo administration that Chief Presidential Legal Counsel Avelino Cruz has to parse the TOR and discuss it with Washington.

On the home front, US officials are worried about public perceptions that they could be fighting the wrong enemies. Several reports filed from Manila have pointed out (correctly) that the bigger Islamist threat is posed not by the Abu Sayyaf but by the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front, which has ties to the al-Qaeda-linked Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), if not al-Qaeda itself. Manila, however, has not asked Washington to fight the MILF. A recent report, which is not quite accurate, even ruled out links between the Abu Sayyaf and Osama bin Laden’s terrorist network.

Incidentally, if US troops want to tackle the Islamist threat, they should be in Indonesia where the JI leadership is based. But the US Congress has barred any form of joint military activities or cooperation, including intelligence-sharing on terrorism, between American and Indonesian forces until Jakarta comes clean on military atrocities perpetrated in East Timor. That’s going to be a long wait.

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With so many problems on its plate, will Washington have the energy or interest to meddle in Philippine politics? The US still needs to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan, install a democratic government in Iraq and continue brokering peace between the Israelis and Palestinians.

Unless the frontrunner in the 2004 presidential race in the Philippines is the MILF’s Hashim Salamat, I don’t think the Americans would worry too much about the outcome of the elections here. Even someone like Joseph Estrada, who as a senator voted to shut down the US bases, dropped his anti-American posturing as soon as he became president. That’s realpolitik.

But even if President Arroyo can’t play the American card, there’s still hope for her not-too-secret desire for a full presidential term. If the economy picks up by October, if there’s some improvement in peace and order, and if the President can somehow jettison her heaviest baggage – namely her husband – at least during this political season, then there’s a chance that the public will be open to a presidential change of mind.

Those are big ifs, but I won’t underestimate the providential forces that dropped the presidency into the lap of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Those same forces could still be at work.

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PHOTO OPS: When he breezed through Manila recently, Adm. Thomas Fargo, commander of US forces in the Pacific, must have found Filipinos more interested in photo ops than with discussing Balikatan and other boring security matters. On Thursday he had a scheduled lunch at the Mandarin with his Annapolis classmate, National Security Adviser Roilo Golez. After the lunch, Golez herded Fargo to an unscheduled meeting with journalists in a room somewhere in the hotel. The journalists must have all been off duty since no one asked questions about security and everyone just wanted a picture with Fargo.

Not to be outdone, Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes had his own photo op in the afternoon at Camp Aguinaldo, shortly after the opening of the Mutual Defense Board meeting. Fargo, who thought the MDB press conference was scheduled for the next day, was surprised to find himself facing a horde of photographers, TV crew and reporters. This time though, the journalists asked questions. You read their reports in the papers. And it was Reyes in the pictures with Fargo.