Secret desire

You can understand why Cabinet members would want President Arroyo to run in 2004. They’re all co-terminus with their boss; once she’s out of power they need to find new jobs.

What was surprising was that such hopes were disclosed to the press by Norberto Gonzales, the President’s adviser on the peace process.

In a society where many people think the worst of each other, the disclosure further stoked suspicions that the President merely put on a show last December, when she announced that she was withdrawing from the 2004 presidential race.

And by stoking the suspicions, Gonzales may have made it harder for the President to make an about-face at the eleventh hour – as many suspect she will do – and seek another six years in office after all.

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The President’s speech last December had moved me. I was willing to give her the benefit of the doubt, if only because I shared the growing desperation of many who see nothing but storm clouds in the Philippine horizon. Giving her a chance to prove her sincerity, giving her a breathing spell to do her job without the usual sniping and carping meant giving the nation a chance.

Skeptics painted a scenario that I admit was quite plausible. They said that if the President did well because of the breathing spell and the political ceasefire that she had sought in her speech, then there could be a groundswell for allowing her to stay on beyond 2004. That groundswell could persuade her to change her mind about not running.

That was a scenario, however, that would take at least a year to prove. In the meantime, we urged responsible opposition members to heed the President’s call for a ceasefire and work together to get us out of the mess we’re in.

But from the start it was an effort to maintain trust in the President’s word. There was First Gentleman Mike Arroyo, trying to win taxi drivers’ hearts and minds with balut and livelihood assistance at an ungodly hour in Manila.

Then there were Lakas members like Heherson Alvarez cheerfully telling the nation that they had not ruled out the President as their standard bearer in 2004.

And now we have Norberto Gonzales. He is, by the way, not the only member of the President’s official family to wish aloud that she would run in 2004. Other Cabinet members have said they saw no alternative to the President and would prefer to have her continue in office for a few more years.

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And why not? If not for her avowed withdrawal from the race, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is fully qualified to seek a regular presidential term.

But if the economy does not improve soon, GMA for president could be a hard sell. I’ve heard people who admire her but who sigh that their lives did not improve even with an economist at the nation’s helm. It could be tricky to try to explain to such people that precisely because we have an economist and not a college dropout ensconced in Malacañang for the past two years, we have not done too badly despite the terrorist threat, a global economic slump and local destabilization attempts.

The President should be one of the happiest people on the planet now that coalition forces are making good progress in Iraq. While she could not go all-out for the war, even her belated support for Iraq’s full disarmament could have boomeranged if the US-led forces found themselves in a quagmire in Iraq.

Instead markets rose at the start of this week’s trading, the dollar (and peso) gained and oil prices softened as US forces zeroed in on Saddam Hussein. Despite the usual wrangling in the United Nations, the reconstruction of Iraq, including the full activation of its oil wells, is under way and is expected to help revive the sluggish global economy. Why, a cure may even be in the offing for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which has devastated the international travel industry worse than 9/11.

And yet it will take time before war-related improvements can be felt in this country. Already the President’s support base is breaking up. One faction has committed to back the presidential bid of her former education secretary, Raul Roco. Another group is lining up behind businessman Eduardo Cojuangco Jr.

Between Roco and Cojuangco I would rather stick with GMA. But how can she go back on her word without losing credibility? An effective leader in this weak republic must be able to look the masses in the eye, say "trust me" and leave no doubt that she means it.

If she goes back on her word, people might consider her a more accomplished actor than her predecessor Joseph Estrada.

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Now Norberto Gonzales has aggravated the President’s problems by reviving all the suspicions about her political plans. Suddenly we remember that despite her avowed withdrawal from the 2004 race, she has been reluctant to make hard decisions such as those involving population control. Business conglomerates that are in trouble, but which are known to wield financial clout during campaigns, appear to be getting a helping hand from the administration.

There is also the speculation that refuses to die – that her congressional allies are rushing to amend the Constitution so she can serve as a transitional leader for at least three years as the nation shifts to a parliamentary form of government.

Norberto Gonzales insists he merely expressed a personal hope. The suspicion, which Malacañang will find hard to dispel, is that Gonzales merely floated a trial balloon for a secret desire of the President herself.

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OVERKILL: It took more than an hour yesterday to reach T.M. Kalaw from Vito Cruz in Manila. The reason: the southbound lane of Roxas Boulevard fronting the US embassy was closed to traffic again and there was a counterflow on the northbound lane. The hideous traffic was all because of an anti-US rally staged by about 20 people, among them several children, who were kept at bay by the police on T.M. Kalaw. People who never seem to need to work or go to school stage such rallies at the embassy almost daily. Will motorists also have to suffer daily?

The cretins from the Manila police who thought of that counterflow should be used as artillery ammunition in Iraq. Once they’re fired from the police I hope they will at least get a piece of the action in Iraq’s reconstruction or get a green card from the US embassy. These bootlickers are not just your ordinary sipsip but higop a la Malabanan, the septic tank tycoon. Does Malacañang have a hand in this?