Dizzying turnover

Dig up pictures and stories about EDSA II and III and you will find many of the people now occupying key government positions. The newest appointee to a prominent post is Lt. Gen. Dionisio Santiago, who got his third star only last March and will replace Gen. Benjamin Defensor as Armed Forces chief come Nov. 18.

Santiago, a member of the Philippine Military Academy’s Class ’70, pole-vaulted past Lt. Gen. Gregorio Camiling, who like Defensor is a member of the PMA’s Class ’69. Camiling, however, still has until November next year before he reaches the mandatory retirement age of 56, while Santiago has only until April 8. And President Arroyo has to show her gratitude to Santiago, who headed Task Force Libra that repelled the Erap loyalists at Malacañang on May 1 last year.

Benjie Defensor is also said to have helped thwart that siege, although he won’t publicly admit it. It would have been a greater reward if his promotion had come earlier, but the President also had to give Roy Cimatu his chance as top honcho in the AFP. Defensor would also have been happy to get a few more months at the helm of the military, but there are other officers who must be rewarded by having the title "AFP chief of staff" in their resumé. And there was that text brigade about a coup if Defensor would get another extension.

After Santiago, will it finally be Camiling? The President may give Lt. Gen. Ernesto Carolina of Class ’70 a chance, since he’s retiring in September ahead of Camiling. And when Camiling finishes his tour of duty, it will be the turn of Air Force chief Lt. Gen. Nestor Santillan of Class ’70, who retires in May 2004.

* * *

So many officers to promote, so little time! Few people can even remember the names of AFP chiefs due to the dizzying turnover.

Even movements at the lower levels are so swift some officers don’t even have enough time to redecorate their new offices. Consider newly promoted Army chief Lt. Gen. Narciso Abaya of Class ’71, who swapped positions with Carolina as Southcom chief only last Oct. 17. Southcom is in charge of the battle against the Abu Sayyaf, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the Pentagon gang and the Islamists launching bomb attacks in Mindanao. No wonder we can’t make heads or tails of those battles; foot soldiers are too busy speculating who will be their next boss.

Not that there’s any question of who’s been running the military through this revolving door policy. Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes has always been perceived as the concurrent de facto AFP chief in the Arroyo administration, so there’s continuity in military policies, whoever is named chief of staff and no matter how briefly he occupies the post.

The quick turnover keeps everyone happy, at least as far as Malacañang is concerned, reducing restiveness in the AFP and dampening the possibility of a coup.

I’ve said that after May 1 this year, the coup threat was over for President GMA. No one will support a putsch so close to a presidential election. The recent coup talk was nothing but hot air fanned by a bunch of old fogeys who are kulang sa pansin or ksp, who miss public attention. Any serious coup plotter won’t leak his plans to the press. He and his coup pals will simply launch the putsch. As long as coup rumors are being discussed to death in the talk shows, Malacañang has nothing to fear.

The problem is that this is one jumpy government. I’ve said that if you want to spook the administration, or if you want some officer kicked out or retired, you attend a gathering of military and police officers and discuss a coup. Then you leak some details of the meeting to the press. It’s a sure way of making grievances reach Malacañang.

* * *

Old soldiers never die, they just… uh… bawl out junior officers? Former AFP chief Lisandro Abadia, who used to be witty and humorous, was the loser when he cussed Angie Reyes in a radio interview. Reyes can come off arrogant and irritating, but Filipinos have a saying: Ang napipikon, talo. The guy who loses his cool is the loser.

Another old soldier, retired PC-INP chief Ramon Montaño, has incurred the ire of National Security Adviser Roilo Golez. Between the two of them, Montaño certainly knows more about intelligence gathering so Golez should go easy on the insults.

And if President GMA will bother to read Montaño’s nine-page analysis of the intelligence business (he calls it "The Essence of Intelligence"), she may have an idea of what’s wrong with her intelligence officers.

"Our intelligence community is still unfocused or uncertain as to what is the principal threat to our national security," Montaño wrote. "Our leaders must determine what is really our ultimate goal, our final objective in our war against terrorists. Is it to destroy them once and for all? Or to keep them around for whatever reasons?"

Montaño is telling the truth when he writes, "During our time, when we were hunting down our quarries, we sought to know everything about them, their families, their girlfriends, their enemies, their teachers, their friends, and even their dogs."

He points out that security officials can’t claim difficulty in stopping terrorism due to lack of funds and the "faceless, nameless" nature of the terrorists.

"It is precisely the job of the intelligence community to put a name and a face to every terrorist, so that the other forces of government and the community in concert can neutralize each and every terrorist in our midst," Montaño writes.

Between terrorism and restiveness in the AFP, you can tell — from the revolving door policy — which concern takes priority in this administration.

* * *

GOING? I’m sorry to hear that Nixon Kua may soon be replaced at the Philippine Tourism Authority. He has been a tireless pitchman for the country’s tourist destinations, and has launched several projects to improve tourist facilities. His negative point — as far as this administration is concerned — is that he’s related to Lito Banayo, who is close to both deposed President Joseph Estrada and Sen. Panfilo Lacson, who may soon be a presidential candidate.