Spooked by FPJ

Since last year there has been speculation that the opposition would field Fernando Poe Jr. against Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in 2004. The talk was that FPJ’s standard reaction to the rumors was something like, "It’s easy to run, but what if I win?"

It was also said that FPJ would have been willing to run in 2004 if his bosom buddy Joseph Estrada had done well as president. Well, we all know what happened to Erap.

The rumors, however, refuse to die down, despite denials by FPJ himself and his wife, Susan Roces. I thought the rumors were simply being fanned by a desperate opposition and by Erap, who reportedly sees no hope for acquittal in his plunder case under the Arroyo administration and the Davide Supreme Court.

But in recent weeks I’ve heard reports that are starting to convince me that FPJ may now be seriously considering a run for the presidency in 2004. Already some quarters are lining up to work for his victory, and these supporters are not just the type who stormed Malacañang on May 1 last year.

For these thinking types, the argument for FPJ is that the nation needs a leader who can galvanize the masses – the majority of Filipinos who live below the poverty line – into positive action. At this point in our nation’s life, the argument goes, this leader isn’t going to be some wily politician but a popular national figure. Erap had the mass appeal, but he was the wrong popular leader – just as we got the lemon among Asia’s strongmen in Ferdinand Marcos while Singapore got Lee Kuan Yew and Malaysia got Mahathir Mohamad.

The trick, the argument goes, is to find a popular but decent person, someone who will have the nation’s interest foremost in his heart. And who has anything bad to say about FPJ? He is arguably the only person in show business more popular than Erap, and he can make the masses swallow the most bitter pill for their own — and the nation’s — good.

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You’ve just heard the campaign pitch of Ronnie Poe’s supporters. Be warned. And be spooked. I can see that Malacañang is spooked enough, even with the denials from FPJ’s camp. I know people who are planning to migrate as soon as an FPJ candidacy is announced, which means they are pretty sure of his victory.

Much will depend on the performance of President Arroyo. In the last elections show business personalities didn’t do well, and people considered that fallout from the box office flop that was the short-lived Estrada presidency. If yet another actor becomes a serious contender for the highest post in the land, it will naturally be seen as a failure of the Arroyo administration.

Sure, President Arroyo has a good work ethic, she certainly has a high IQ and leads a healthy lifestyle. She can be driven in her style of governance. And she’s even learned to laugh at her attitude problem.

She has taken charge of the nation during one of the most difficult periods — a global slowdown that started in 2000, which was compounded by the terrorist attacks in the United States on Sept. 11 last year and the continuing terror threat. Because of the way she was installed in power, she must also battle persistent attempts to undermine her administration, which could include exacerbating already serious peace and order problems.

President GMA is saddled with high expectations and a relatively short period to meet them. Considering the challenges facing her administration, she’s on her way to becoming what she said she was aspiring for: a good President.

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Mrs. Arroyo, however, will need to do something about perceptions that she is being manipulated by some of her favorite security officials. Also, she will have to reach out to people who are – rightly or wrongly – turned off by the prospect of six more years of her husband and her publicist in power. The thinking – again rightly or wrongly – is that if they have done what they have been doing in less than two years in power, consider what they would have "accomplished" at the end of nine years at Malacañang.

But wouldn’t anyone – even a Fernando Poe Jr. – succumb to the temptations of power once he or she is ensconced at Malacañang? After all, as one public official famously said, what are they in power for?

Again, the argument of FPJ’s supporters is that he’s not the type who would wallow in the trappings of power, that even if there is corruption in a Poe administration, it would be on a much lower scale.

The only thing that can spook these thinking types is the prospect of seeing all the crooks who hovered around Erap during his days in power hovering around President FPJ. If they see these people involved in an FPJ campaign, they said, then they would just support… nobody. Perhaps they would boycott the elections. Perhaps they would simply migrate.

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For a number of Filipinos, local politics can be more terrifying than the threat of Jemaah Islamiyah, Abu Sayyaf and Osama bin Laden.

Filipinos will ignore terrorist warnings from the US State Department, going on with business as usual. Except in places such as Basilan and Sulu, terrorist threats are generally seen as temporary. But the results of elections could send some Filipinos packing with their families to what they think are better climes. Two people I know are currently processing papers for migration with their families to Canada and New Zealand. In the past months I know others who have left for Canada, bringing their families with them, and they’re not even potential targets of ransom kidnappings. Canada is a favorite because of its convivial policy toward immigrants. Australia was another favorite, but after the attack in Bali, Indonesia, it would be a safe bet that the Aussies would be less welcoming to immigrants.

With the buzz about an FPJ candidacy becoming louder, I’m hearing more and more people saying they plan to migrate. For some people, the prospect of another movie star as president is more terrifying than the threat posed by al-Qaeda. But then they look at Malacañang and wonder if six more years of its occupant would be a lesser evil.