Jitters

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo isn’t going to be ousted in a coup and she won’t be replaced by the "collective leadership" of a junta. You need the backing of the military and police for that. There are always officers grumbling about promotions, favoritism and stupid superiors, but there has been no significant agitation in the military and police lately that should give the President sleepless nights.

Florencio Fianza, who seems to have a knack for getting into a tight spot, has been issuing clarifications like mad, denying involvement in any coup plot. As for Teddy Benigno, one doesn’t plot to overthrow a government by writing about it in detail several times in a newspaper column. As you’ve seen by the furor he has raised, Teddy is one provocative writer, but he just isn’t the type who would get involved in a coup plot.

Teddy reportedly left the Council of Philippine Affairs months ago. This furor looks more like a battle between two camps of KSP or kulang sa pansin, people with acute attention deficit: Dodi Limcaoco ranged against COPA’s Peping Cojuangco and Boy Saycon, et al. In dealing with these two groups, which were both part of EDSA Dos, President GMA must have learned early in her administration the consequences of her immense power to appoint and disappoint. With allies like these, who needs enemies?

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Did the reports bother President GMA? Her administration looks more bothered by the pro-Erap forces. Otherwise why pluck Ronald Lumbao of the People’s Movement Against Poverty from obscurity and turn him into a martyr for the cause of Asiong Salonga? Why stop the telecast of Ama ng Masa? Clearly the administration is worried about a repeat of EDSA Tres.

Is there something to worry about? The PMAP alone can’t muster the EDSA Tres crowd. For the warm bodies they will need the Iglesia ni Cristo and El Shaddai. I don’t think those two groups are in the mood for EDSA IV. Without the warm bodies you won’t see the opportunist opposition members in that crowd.

The Left? Despite its inevitable falling out with the Arroyo administration, it’s not teaming up with the crowd that idolizes Joseph Estrada. The legitimate Left, which was part of EDSA Dos, considers Lumbao a mercenary while the PMAP says the Left has lost touch with the poor.

You wish the administration would simply let the pro-Erap forces flex their muscles all they want on May 1. The much ballyhooed show of force might turn out to be a show of weakness – a better gauge of public support for Erap than the conflicting results of different pollsters.

A year after the May 1 riots, however, this administration seems to be scared of its own shadow. It’s jumpy, prone to knee-jerk reactions, most likely because of the way it was installed in power. One day we’ll have to give an accurate version of the events that led to the ouster of Erap and his replacement by his vice president.

In the meantime, whether or not GMA is merely an acting President, Erap is out. He was kicked out and he won’t do a Hugo Chavez. This ain’t Venezuela. 

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The renewed coup rumors have given the KSP in the military an opportunity to try to grab their commander-in-chief’s attention. A report yesterday said retired Brig. Gen. Rodrigo Gutang, executive director of the Association of Generals and Flag Officers, was suggesting a meeting between Palace officials and at least 10 active and 10 retired generals. Gutang said the generals were unhappy because they were "not given concessions" after EDSA Dos despite their participation in the uprising.

See, it all boils down to division of the spoils. Are there any other sinecures to give away? If these disgruntled officers don’t get what they want, will they attempt a coup? What a sorry bunch of officers we have.

This isn’t even counting the police generals who are restive over the looming change in the Philippine National Police leadership. And even without that, the President already has enough problems with some of the police officers known to be well connected with her. One is a notorious kidnapper – the Tsinoy community knows him well. Another is raking it in these days from jueteng. The ugly buzz is that Malacañang is looking the other way because he’s sharing the spoils with the right people and is in fact raising campaign funds for the President in 2004. 

If the Palace tries to discipline him, will he plot a coup? Possibly. But can he count on public support? I don’t know about you, but I’ve got a serious case of coup, junta and people power fatigue.