The threat of "catastrophic breaching" must have subsided since Phivolcs has not repeated the warning this year. Last week, however, other geologists revived the warning, with the additional detail that the crater wall could collapse within a month as the lake water continued to rise. Kelvin Rodolfo, a consultant of the University of the Philippines’ National Institute of Geological Science, and Rosalito Alonso reported to the British emergency agency Oxfam that breaching of the crater wall could release up to 60 million cubic meters of water and lahar.
In the path of destruction is Botolan town in Zambales, with 46,000 residents. Villages that now dot the upper slopes of Mt. Pinatubo are also sure to be affected when the so-called Maraunot notch is breached, Rodolfo and Alonso warned. Reports said the resulting destruction could be akin to the havoc wreaked in 1998 by Nicaragua’s Casita volcano when its crater lake was breached. It took just a few minutes for the avalanche of water, mud and volcanic debris to bury two villages, leaving 2,000 people dead.
Phivolcs scientists have given assurance that the scenario painted by Rodolfo and Alonso is too grim. It won’t hurt, however, to double-check the two men’s claims, especially since Phivolcs first issued the warning last year. It also won’t hurt to warn residents in the affected areas about the potential dangers posed by the breaching of the lake wall.
The Philippines has had its share of major natural disasters, a number of which occurred with little warning. Ormoc City in Leyte was inundated by a devastating freak flood that killed 4,000 people. Pinatubo wasn’t even in the international list of volcanoes when it awakened from centuries of slumber, altering the map of Central Luzon and disrupting weather patterns around the globe. Rodolfo and Alonso may be exaggerating the latest danger posed by Pinatubo, but affected communities must be fully apprised of the threat. There is also no excuse for the government to be caught unprepared in case disaster strikes.