Gloom

If it’s any consolation, other currencies in the region have also been falling. The Indonesian rupiah is the worst hit by jitters over a possible debt payment default by Argentina. The currencies of Taiwan and Singapore have also taken bigger hits than the peso, but the Thai baht and the South Korean won are faring better than our currency.

Thailand and South Korea, which were the worst affected by the Asian crisis that started in 1997, have made impressive recoveries – certainly much more impressive than the Philippines. They probably don’t have bankers like this one I’ve heard of who’s been urging his relatives to hoard dollars because it’s going to hit P80 to $1. In South Korea people even surrendered their gold to the government to prop up their economy at the start of the Asian crisis. That will never happen here.

I know people bet against their own currency all the time. In a free country, you can’t stop anyone from trying to make money from foreign exchange trading. But what good is the profit you make from hoarding dollars when it contributes to the fall of your currency, which means you can buy less with your peso? Discouraging currency speculation in this country is like shooting at the moon, but there must be a better way to make a buck.

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I’m sure President Arroyo knows the setting for her first State of the Nation Address is anything but ideal. The nation is in dire straits, and it may be nearly impossible to explain to many people that one reason for their misery is the situation in a country known hereabouts largely for its corned beef. Malacañang will have to find a layman’s explanation for the "Latin American syndrome" or why a potential debt default in the land of Evita Peron (played by Madonna) is pulling down our peso.

The President has been under fire from her allies for her treatment of her predecessor Joseph Estrada. The left is threatening to stage massive protests on the day of her SONA. Nothing new there, leftist groups do it every opening of Congress so Malacañang shouldn’t get excited about it. As long as the mass actions are peaceful they should be regarded as normal manifestations of democracy in action. But the SONA may mark the breakaway of the left from the administration that it helped install.

Over the past months the left has been veering farther from the Arroyo administration. The same thing happened after the 1986 people power revolt. Although the left boycotted EDSA I, Corazon Aquino had allies from the left, and they clashed with the rightists in her government. For six years Mrs. Aquino had to battle threats from the left and right; she survived with democracy intact.

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Apart from the left, there are loud grumblings from President GMA’s allies in the business community. I don’t think any businessman can be bullish during these times, but the members of the Makati Business Club painted a gloomy picture of the economy not just because of any "Tango effect" or Latin American syndrome. Their main concern was peace and order. The Abu Sayyaf and kidnappings in Metro Manila have scared away investors and dampened tourism.

This problem the President should be able to address more decisively – she continues to enjoy the support of the military and police. But she will have to be more demanding of her soldiers and cops. A number of them seem more adept at getting their pictures in the news than in doing a law enforcer’s job. They’re called pulis patola and they’re all over the place.

Despite that gloomy Makati Business Club outlook for the rest of the year, I don’t think President GMA has lost her support in the business community. They still consider her competent enough to handle the economy in this difficult period, but you usually can’t have everything: an economist is no supercop. President GMA will have to try to be both.

She still has the overwhelming support of the Catholic Church, although she has come under fire for it. What she has lost in the left she may have gained in the poor with her attempts to reach out to her predecessor’s traditional constituency.

But she faces one tough fight. While there are those who console themselves with the thought that at least it’s not a corrupt, womanizing, incompetent alcoholic steering the nation in these troubled times, there are also people looking around for someone who can do a better job.

President GMA can keep going with the thought that what doesn’t kill her will make her strong. Let’s hope the economy doesn’t approach death before it becomes stronger.