Waiting for Musharraf - WHY AND WHY NOT by Nelson A. Navarro

The only good thing that can be said of the Estrada impeachment trial that begun yesterday is that we’re having it – at least in the short run – in lieu of a coup d’etat or a civil war. Better words than bullets.

But judging from the never-ending street demonstrations, pro and anti, as well as the relentless barrage of charges and countercharges aired too faithfully and too loudly by the media, whatever comes out of the trial may settle nothing and impress no one. If at all, the upcoming replays of Marcosian-style greed and the exasperating legal tricks that will surely be mustered by the defense lawyers are bound to bring the nation’s long-running political and economic crisis into a rapid boil.

Whether President Estrada is proven guilty or acquitted seems irrelevant at this point. The opposition will settle for nothing less than conviction and removal from office of the first Filipino president to be impeached. Estrada and his partisans, on the other hand, are banking on glorious acquittal and a so-called "second wind" of public confidence lifting up the embattled regime all the way to the end of his term in 2004.

Given such mutually exclusive scripts and regardless of how the 22 senators vote, the popular assumption is that there will be enough outrage and recrimination at the end of the trial to keep the sordid drama going indefinitely, perhaps spilling into the May 2001 mid-term elections.

No wonder there are said to be any number of extralegal plots and conspiracies running parallel tracks with the impeachment trial. Some alarmists say the process could become so hopelessly muddled and embittered that the door could be flung wide open to military intervention.

Others fear the advent of a Musharraf figure straight out of Pakistan – a supposedly "clean" military leader taking advantage of the turmoil and presenting himself as the savior who will rid the nation of the eternal curse of traditional politics and corruption.

But cooler heads insist that the country’s much-battered democratic institutions are resilient enough to discourage military putschists and adventures. Still, there’s no telling how long the military can be kept on a tight leash should the volatile situation slide into anarchy.

The prospects look bleak. A former Armed Forces chief of staff recently warned on a TV program that chaos in the streets could leave the military with no other choice but to "ask the President to resign." This request would have to be obeyed by the beleaguered commander-in-chief whether he likes it or not, warned the general.

With so many retired generals including former President Fidel Ramos coming out of the woodwork to demand Estrada’s resignation even before the conclusion of the impeachment trial, the stage has been set for the rapid politicization or the army, if it isn’t already.

Ramos, for instance, has upped the ante by accusing pro-Estrada forces of concocting a "God Save the King" plot to sabotage the opposition and bring about a "friendly" coup that may or may not formally retain Estrada in office, although power would pass to some other cabal.

Administration spokesmen claim Ramos and his evil twin, Joe Almonte, have been engaged in a destabilization plot against Estrada from Day One of the regime in June 30, 1998. The sensational disappearance and presumed murder of public relations man Bubby Dacer is said to be linked, in whole or in part, to the long squabble between the two Presidents.

The grapevine has it that Dacer, who was working for Ramos, disappeared into thin air a few days after an angry confrontation with Estrada in Malacañang and while he was on the way to see Ramos over yet another multibillion-peso scandal to detonate against the administration.

With pointless debate and mayhem in the cards, what’s there to look forward to in terms of putting an end to what Senate President Nene Pimentel has called "our long nightmare"?

My humble view is that we just have to ignore the words and concentrate on the process. Right now, everybody’s locked into the trial mode and while this could spell national stalemate, it also means everybody’s watching everybody. No trick or maneuver will be left unnoticed. For every action, expect a reaction – all the way until the whole brutal truth comes out.

Talkshow host Larry Henares puts this gridlock scenario into some kind of zany perspective it deserves. Both sides, he grants, will try their darned best to win over the senators-jurors. The honorables will be caught between ingratitude and patriotism, between pride and doing the right thing. Well, let them stew in front of the live TV cameras. And if Estrada really has nothing to hide, he need never fear the power ofTV to unmask liars.

Multimillion-dollar bribery of the senators can cut both ways. The givers must make sure the unholy deal can be enforced. The takers will have to find ways so that the paper trail won’t ever lead back to them.

As for the Musharraf wannabes, too bad this country isn’t Pakistan. Look what’s happened there and pray real hard that our imperfect democracy will somehow make it through the night.

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Nelson A. Navarro's e-mail address: [email protected]