Race against disaster - ROSES AND THORNS by Alejandro R. Roces

New York-based investment bank Merrill Lynch has a pessimistic view of the state of our economy. A Merrill Lynch executive said, "We believe a protracted attempt to impeach the president would be very negative for the economy." Our international credit rating has gone down from "stable" to "negative." And the peso has plummeted more than 20 percent year-on-year against the dollar. This has forced the Bangko Sentral to sell a portion of its dollar reserves. Merrill Lynch has advised investors to stay away from the Philippine banking sector because they expect that industrial non-performing loans will dramatically go up due to high-interest rates.

Last Sunday, there was a prayer-rally at the Luneta Park. And yesterday, the biggest and longest series of protests against the Estrada administration was launched by a multisectoral group. Malacañang is obviously concerned with the situation. The best indication is that it has declared a "state of alert."

The impeachment trial does not begin till Dec. 7. Logically, that would be the time to have the multisectoral rally in the Senate. We sincerely doubt that President Estrada would resign at this time. At best, he will wait and see how the impeachment proceedings develop. Senator Aquilino Pimentel said that he hopes the impeachment against President Estrada can be decided by the end of this year. We believe that is a too optimistic, better still, unrealistic hope. What can accelerate the proceedings is if the first accusation is heard and the evidence is so strong against the president that it would be sufficient to justify an impeachment verdict without hearing the other three charges. Other than that, we believe that the hearings will last to almost three months.

In the meantime, our economic situation will worsen. We cannot blame the people from channeling almost all their thoughts, energies and actions on public demonstrations to show just how they feel about the current administration. But, perhaps a good part of their thoughts, actions and resources should be dedicated to a program on what the community can do for the unemployed and the underprivileged in these trying times. It is going to be a bleak Christmas for all. But we can make it a truly Christian Christmas if we all help the plight of the most downtrodden. We are, of course, referring to the mahirap that this administration neglected and – if Chavit Singson’s charges are true – betrayed. For the victims of jueteng are the very poor.

And – most important of all – all demonstrations should be peaceful. Let us have peace on earth and goodwill towards all men. The nation’s goodwill towards President Estrada has already been shown when they asked him to voluntarily step down. He chose impeachment. In a few months, we will know which was the correct alternative for him.