Erap has the offensive, or so he thinks - GOTCHA by Jarius Bondoc

A general knows he has lost the war when his officers start deluding themselves with imagined battle victories. But what if the general himself is busy gloating?

Joseph Estrada left yesterday for Singapore, secure in the belief that the worst is over in his fight against impeachment. Executive Secretary Ronaldo Zamora had assured him they’ve got the situation down pat. Their lawyers are ready to sue former SEC chairman Jun Yasay for libel for saying that Estrada got a P1-billion "broker fee" in the 1998 sale of PLDT. Adviser Robert Aventajado, too, is suing former tourism chief Tony Gonzales for accusing Estrada and his cronies of trying to grab his hotel-casino. Government lawyers have turned the tables on whistle-blower Chavit Singson, indicting him for plunder for his very exposé that Estrada filched P130 million in tobacco taxes. Intelligence agents have videotaped speakers in protest rallies for future charges of inciting to sedition. Telecommunications officials have ordered radio and TV execs to submit tapes of their shows in the past two weeks. NBI agents have scared potential witnesses into clamming up on the many mansions of the many mistresses. Media assets have been primed. Telephone brigades are in full swing, deluging radio-TV issue polls with positive spins. Surveys have been commissioned to show Estrada’s continuing popularity. Congress lackeys have started moves to impeach Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to deprive the United Opposition of a leader. Most importantly, Estrada’s lawyers have filed a motion in the Senate to quash his own impeachment case on technical grounds.

Estrada’s officers are celebrating. Malacañang’s strategy to get the public to await the impeachment trials appears to be working – for now. The objective is to lull people into complacency that the constitutional process is on stream, so that when nationwide protest actions die down, senators will be under no pressure to convict Estrada on any of the four grounds and ten counts for which he’s accused. More so if the spirit of Christmas – the season of giving and forgiving, for peace on earth and goodwill to men – makes people forget their woes.

History is replete with lessons that it may not work for long, though. Ferdinand Marcos was accused of running the dirtiest election when he won a second term in November 1969. There was public outrage. But it died down in late December, to the delight of his handlers, three of whom are now Estrada’s senators. But to their chagrin right after the holidays, hundreds of thousands of disenchanted youths and students broke out into the streets in what is now called the First-Quarter Storm of 1970. Again in August 1985, a rubber-stamp Batasan trashed Marcos’ impeachment case two hours after receiving it, and in November the Agrava Commission cleared the hated Gen. Fabian Ver of Ninoy Aquino’s assassination. Marcos grew bold enough to call for a snap election by February in 1986. People didn’t believe his resulting victory. Two weeks later, they kicked him out of Malacañang in a People Power Revolt.

The worsening economy may not wait for Christmas. The peso has regained some strength with initial remittances from overseas workers. Estrada’s spokesmen claim it’s a sign of people’s trust in the impeachment process. Yet the peso drops every time he insists he will not resign. It dropped again Thursday from news about the lawyers’ plan to delay the trial with their motion to quash.

Today’s rumblings manifest distrust with how the constitutional process of impeachment will work. People see in the lawyers’ motion to quash Estrada’s case as yet another admission that the charges of bribery, corruption, culpable violation of the Constitution and betrayal of public trust are true. For, why fear a public trial if the charges won’t stick? They see duplicity in the way Estrada proclaims that he will testify whether or not his lawyers approve, yet all the while they’re citing legal technicalities to avoid that fateful event. Wary of murmurs that Malacañang will buy off senators at P100 million to P200 million apiece to vote for acquittal, bank managers and clerks are on the lookout for any suspicious cash movement of at least P20 million.

Protest leaders are not sitting pretty to watch the trials. Former President Cory Aquino has called on politicized folk to "adopt a senator" – knock on their sense of patriotism and posterity so that, on the day of verdict, they will vote from conscience and not for convenience. Former President Fidel Ramos has exposed a Malacañang plot to discredit all opposition leaders even to the extent of killing Singson and blaming it on them. Arroyo has declared that impeachment is but a pressure point for the equally constitutional option of Estrada’s resignation.

More rallies for resignation are set on the eve of the trials. Bro. Eddie Villanueva of the four million-strong Jesus Is Lord and Philippines for Jesus Movement will lead on Sunday afternoon a "Prayer for Truth, Justice and Right", to be followed by calls for Estrada to step down. The Born-again groups will have speakers from the rival Catholic and Philippine Independent Churches and Marian devotees.

Other unprecedented alliances are a-forming, all for resignation. The left-leaning Kilusang Mayo-Uno welcomed the announcement of Marcos loyalists to withdraw support from Estrada. KMU’s rival but also left-leaning Bukluran ng Manggagawang Pilipino are also planning a general strike before Christmas with moderate labor groups like the Trade Union Congress of the Philippines. Farmers are marching from Cagayan Valley and Bicol to converge at Liwasang Bonifacio on November 30 for a tiangge (flea market)-cum-demonstration of disenchantment.

National Security Adviser Alexander Aguirre sees in strikes and marches a communist plot to overrun Malacañang. But AFP and PNP retired and active-duty generals are not biting the Red-baiting that Marcos was so fond of. At least three of their associations are prodding senior officers to "convince" Estrada to resign – a message that Defense Secretary Orlando Mercado reads as a call for coup d’etat.

Not all Estrada officers are jubilant. While Cabinet men calculate a 60-percent chance of acquittal, newspapers quote an insider as saying they acknowledge that Estrada’s chances of being able to govern afterwards are slim. They’re thus talking this early of a coalition government with the Opposition – which, again, will depend on the people’s assent.

And there’s a case for plunder filed against Estrada to worry about. The only reason it’s not moving in the Office of the Ombudsman is because any impeachment trial takes precedence over other investigations – not because the President enjoys absolute immunity from suit, as Zamora and Spokesman Dong Puno falsely claim. It’s set in US jurisprudence, which forms part of RP laws. Richard Nixon was about to be impeached for perjury and obstruction of justice when civil libertarians filed a case in court for wiretapping. His lawyers ran to the Supreme Court for cover, but it said his immunity covered only official, not criminal, acts. Lucky for Nixon, Gerald Ford pardoned him later.

Estrada’s officers would best reserve their celebration for such a day.

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INTERACTION. Gerard Goco, yahoo.com: I agree with you: Cabinet men must stop fooling themselves (Gotcha, 22 Nov. 2000). In the past two years, they gave bad advice, or good ones that Erap disregarded. Either way, they’re inefficient.

Amb. Hermenegildo Cruz, cs.com: One of the issues addressed by the Nuremberg trial is about so-called technocrats serving discredited regimes. Two technocrats – Hjalmar Schact and Albert Speer – pleaded no participation in the Holocaust and other Nazi atrocities. But prosecutors argued that they prolonged Hitler’s rule by lending their talents to him. The courts sentenced them to prison.

Ben Bie, aol.com: The myth that Erap is starting to reform reminds me of the legend of the scorpion that bit its savior out of habit.

LAVB Lorenzo, brunet.bn: I’m angry with SSS misuse of our money to prop up the stock market. No wonder my husband and I can’t avail of loan benefits. SSS computers say our file is "not in order," yet we have all the remittance slips.

Rymel Evangelista, worldpartners.com: Your column on the mansions (Gotcha, 20 Nov. 2000) shows how Erap is using the masa to stay in power.

Renato Rivera, med.navy.mil: The value of money increases if it’s shared by many. Had those millions been spent on worthy projects for the poor and not on mansions for mistresses, it would’ve been a different story.

Roel Sigue, mindspring.com: If senators pass the 24-vote rule, then they have to let Macapagal-Arroyo sit as juror and vote (Gotcha, 18 Nov. 2000). Still, we’ll never know how the late Sen. Fernan will vote.

Thank you, Jinky Jamilla, Aida Aguas, Kishu Daswani, Rochelle Carino, Bing Ramos, Klaus Schonfeld, Ched Arzadon, Joey Legarda, Boy Ner, Dr. Martin Bautista, Gras Reyes, Luciano Adan, Francis Roque, Joey Ledesma, Grace Inocencio, Mario Garong, Gabby Benavidez, Raymundo Ocampo, Lex Librero, Noriel Javier, Yayen Fortes, Albert Banico, Bernie Cortes, Dominador Mungcal, Pete Lolong.

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