On trial - SKETCHES by Ana Marie Pamintuan

The proceedings moved so slowly I’m amazed my eyes remained glued to the TV set. But that’s how riveting the impeachment drama has become: You don’t want to miss even the smallest detail, no matter how boring. So even if each of the 21 senators had to take their oaths individually yesterday (better for souvenir photos?), I watched. Who knows, maybe there would be another slapping incident to liven things up a bit.

Finally, the picture-taking was over and President Erap was summoned to answer the charges. One of his rabid defenders, Senate Majority Leader Francisco Tatad, provided the day’s sideshow by bolting the ruling Lapian ng Masang Pilipino coalition. But don’t think this means one less vote for the President. Maybe the Opus Dei finally prevailed on Tatad. But I smell a farce or moro-moro in this latest show from the guy who made his mark early in Philippine history for announcing the declaration of martial law in 1972.

For that matter, I can’t seem to get myself to put too much faith in this impeachment trial. Why do I keep seeing acquittal ahead? Because President Erap can count on the votes not only of his hard-core supporters but also of several recent defectors, at least two of whom are in dire financial straits. Even if you dump a mountain of evidence at senators’ feet, a number of them could still vote according to the dictates of political expediency. Just release another Social Weather Stations survey on the eve of the verdict, showing the President maintaining his popularity, and that preponderance of evidence can end up in the garbage heap. Even criminal liability can be judged through surveys in this country.

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Then again, maybe Tatad wants to make up for that martial law announcement and is really willing to consider the President’s conviction, if the evidence warrants. Maybe former President Corazon Aquino’s "adopt-a-senator" scheme will have some effect. Then again, with characters like the balato twins at the Senate, I don’t think any appeal to conscience will work.

Even as we await the start of the trial, we must prepare for possible exoneration. When this is all over and he wins, what will the President be like? He’s not known for being magnanimous in victory and he’s not gracious in his popularity. Consider his retorts to critics in the past two years: Inggit lang sila! Mag-presidente muna kayo! Mga talunan lang ’yan. Hindi na uso ang mukha no’n. (My rough translations: Eat your heart out! You should become president first! They’re just losers. His face is passé.)

What will he say if he’s cleared by the Senate? Let me guess. In a nationwide telecast he’ll proffer the hand of reconciliation. This will be followed by video clips of his military and police chiefs, warning his critics to abide by the Senate verdict, or else. This in turn will be followed by radio interviews the next day where the President will jeer at his opponents.

I don’t think this President will take exoneration as a cue to reform. Rather, he’ll consider it a reaffirmation of his mandate, a license to continue his lifestyle of excess and irresponsibility. Tuloy ang ligaya. Or in show biz parlance, on with the show!

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What happens to the nation then? The rallies are sure to continue. Expect the campaign of civil disobedience to gather steam. Administration hawks may push for a crackdown, which could only stoke the fires of civil unrest.

The instability will leave the economy in tatters. Few people have the heart to lay off workers during Christmas, but business groups are predicting shutdowns and retrenchments early next year as the effects of the protracted unrest, the peso’s depreciation and fuel price hikes are finally felt.

Yesterday, President Erap promised to abide by the verdict of the Senate, and urged his critics to do likewise. If exonerated, he vowed he would not govern as a greatly weakened lame duck.

But I think those who believe he’s guilty and unfit to govern will no longer change their mind, whatever the outcome of the Senate trial. Even surveys will mean no-thing. As the English poet John Dryden wrote, "Nor is the people’s judgment always true; the most may err as grossly as the few."

We’ll watch the Senate trial keenly, down to the most boring moments. But I don’t think the battle will be over after this trial.