Ateneo economists see bleak future for country - ROSES AND THORNS by Alejandro R. Roces

Economics is the groundwork for social and moral wellbeing. And in the words of Hanah Mere, "A sound economy is a sound understanding brought into action. It is calculation realized; it is the doctrine of proportion reduced to practice; it is foreseeing contingencies and providing against them; it is expecting contingencies and being prepared for them."

A paper prepared by Dr. Leonardo Lanzona, Jr., chairman of the Ateneo’s Department of Economics, and Dr. Fernando Aldaba, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, on the country’s economic future concluded that economically, our best-case scenario is President Estrada’s voluntary resignation this November. The worst-case scenario is an impeachment trial that will drag on till the first year of the third millennium. In that event, the economy will collapse by the ninth month. Sad to say, those are the two possibilities that we have to be ready for.

No one ever imagined that Joseph Estrada’s greatest dramatic role would be as a real-life defendant in an impeachment case. Everyone is watching the show, curious as to what will happen next. The old movies he made were never re shown. But his impeachment will be immortalized in history. We are not predicting the verdict. The important thing is that it must be a just verdict. It should be based on the facts that will be established during the trial and not partisan politics. But the sooner the verdict, the better for our economy. Senate President Aquilino Pimentel, Jr. said, "I really want to see this nightmare over by the end of December." Some of his colleagues believe that this is a very optimistic and unrealistic view. They believe that it could drag for a year. Maybe the case can last for a year, but our economy will certainly collapse long before that time.

The best solution to the problem is really the president’s voluntary resignation. A nation divided, specially during an economic crisis, cannot meet the challenge of our times. We pray that President Estrada can still muster all that is noble in him and make the supreme sacrifice of vacating his office. In that way, he will exit heroically.

What is happening to our national leaders? Can’t we even find leaders who are not hard-drinkers, big-time gamblers or notorious womanizers? Josiah Gilbert Holland said it well:

God give us men! A time like this demands

Strong minds, great hearts, true faith, and ready hands;

Men whom the lust of office does not kill;

Men whom the spoils of office cannot buy;

Men who possess opinions and a will;

Men who have honor; men who will not lie.