Convergence of crises - JAYWALKER by Art A. Borjal

By the time this column comes out, President Estrada and his media handlers must have already come up with an answer to Ilocos Gov. Chavit Singson’s explosive claim on jueteng operations. And Chavit’s exposé is the kind of stuff that can make tongues wag, that can move like a racing car from one coffeeshop to another. Chavit’s shocking exposé, as everyone now knows, is that tens of millions of dirty money, derived from the illegal numbers game, jueteng, go all the way to Malacañang.

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A day after Chavit’s astounding revelation, Malacanang remained mum on the subject. President Estrada’s think tank apparently spent some time, preparing what would be the best and most effective response to Chavit’s allegations.

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Keeping mum, in the hope that the whirlwind Chavit has unleashed will blow over, is not – repeat, NOT – an option for President Estrada. People are eagerly waiting for reassurance that the presidency, no matter how fractured it has become, because of the endless avalanche of controversies that has buffeted it, will carry on to the very end of its mandate.

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One of the many good things going for the Estrada presidency is that the majority of the masa are still optimistic that our country can weather the storms buffeting our land. While many of the President’s close friends and cronies have been linked to all sorts of shenanigans, and some of them probably deserve a good public hanging, a good number of Filipinos are still willing to give President Estrada the benefit of the doubt, insofar as the jueteng war is conerned.

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But that was before Chavit’s fulminations. Now, even the President’s rabid supporters must be worried that unless he can convince the people that he is a victim of a monstrous lie, public perception of his integrity in the monetary area could change dramatically for the worse.

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There is no doubt that the country is in the grip of a convergence of crises of daunting proportions. The peso is in a free fall. The economy is tattered. The peace and order situation is growing increasingly tenuous and alarming, mainly because of the unresolved conflict in Mindanao. To make matters worse, the New People’s Army is slowly climbing out of the grave. In fact, the NPA is now challenging the government – again – in certain areas of the country.

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Presidential cronies are practically on a rampage, sometimes among and against themselves. The battle for economic turfs and political fiefdoms is heightening. One-upmanship among the President’s men, in what is derisively called "The Other Cabinet," is intense and intensifying.

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The economic whiplash the country is currently going through is really worrisome. Why? Because its effect is so widespread, unlike previous crises that impacted only on certain economic sectors. Note that up until the second quarter of this year, the economy was still making some headway, even though tentative and superficial it may have been.

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At that time, people in the rural areas were still enjoying the bumper harvest from the last cropping season of 1999. Copra prices were scaling new heights. As far as the economy in the countryside went, there was not much to really complain about, as long as the high copra prices held.

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But that picture of quiet rural contentment has been rudely shattered. Copra prices have hit almost rock-bottom. That bottom is one peso per kilo in provinces far away from the centers of industrial oil production, down from a high of P14 a kilo in early March.

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Many farmers have stopped making copra altogether, because it is no longer viable at current rock-bottom prices. It is well to remember that in coconut-producing provinces, copra is the people’s bread and butter. With the prices of copra that low and miserable, the economic situation in the countryside could ignite unwanted political problems.

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That is not the end of the trail of bad news. Last week, Administrator Escueta of the Philippine Coconut Administration told mayors from the different coconut-producing municipalities that copra prices should increase by the second quarter of 2001. The PCA head’s announcement was made during the 10th national convention of the League of Municipalities of the Philippines.

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That is the rosiest picture of the copra industry that Escueta could offer. That means higher copra prices are six to nine months away into the future. And we are talking here about people’s daily bread and butter. As one distraught municipal mayor commented, at the end of six or nine months, few coconut farmers would still be alive. Aanhin pa ang damo kung patay na ang kabayo.

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Ernesto Geradila has been fighting valiantly to overcome his heart problem over the past 20 years. An ambulant dried fish vendor, he could only afford herbal treatment. Until 1998, he successfully staved off a heart operation. Which was just as well because he could not afford it. But in 1998, he did what he had tried very hard to avoid, a heart operation at the Philippine Heart Center. He thought then that he was fully cured.

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Geradilla was wrong. Forced to go back to his livelihood of selling dried fish after his operation, the 52-year-old father of four is back at the Philippine Heart Center, this time for a valve replacement and bypass operation. He had been going back and forth to the Heart Center from his home in Eastern Samar, hoping that he would finally be operated on.

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Last Friday, he was supposed to undergo surgery. However, it was postponed at the last minute, to give way to others in the kilometric wait-list of charity patients waiting to undergo the knife. Now, will some kind souls lend a helping hand, to enable this poor man to prolong his life?

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Art A. Borjal’s e-mail address: <[email protected]>