President Estrada is on the verge of giving Muslim separatists and bandits alike a peace deal they can't resist. Or one they can only reject at a stiff price for themselves and, perhaps, for the whole nation as well.
In what could be the biggest political gamble of his life, the President has made it clear that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and all other separatist groups will have to accept one government, one constitution and one armed forces in this country.
The alternative everybody dreads is war or, rather, another continuation of the intermittent conflict that has ravaged a disproportionately conspicuous section of Southern Mindanao for the past three decades.
Estrada's firm message, delivered on television at the eve of today's resumption of peace talks in Cotabato City, may have produced the desirable response from the MILF.
The MILF, as of press time, said it would resume negotiations with the government panel. And this in spite of the absence of a military ceasefire between government troops and MILF soldiers.
Also looming large over the proceedings are such important developments as the armed forces' encirclement of Camp Abubakar, the MILF's main base, and the arrest of 26 alleged MILF members involved in the recent spate of bombings in Metro Manila malls.
Needless to add, the government has announced that it will file murder and other grave charges against the suspects as well as top MILF leaders Hashim Salamat and Al Haj Murad for ordering the round of mayhem that, for a while, practically brought the nation's capital to its knees.
Momentarily pushed aside by the more high-profile Abu Sayyaf kidnappings in Basilan and Jolo, the MILF problem once again dominates the administration's Mindanao agenda.
The Abu Sayyaf is, after all, a small extremist band engaged in kidnapping for ransom, and one whose menace can be contained and even allowed to drag on for months in spite of pressure from foreign governments whose citizens have been held hostage since April 23rd.
But the standoff with the MILF is one that has persisted for more than 30 years, wasting hundreds of lives and billions of pesos in scarce resources that could have gone to infrastructure and development. Although largely confined to a small corner of Southern-Central Mindanao, this pesky conflict has, in effect, wielded veto power over the economic development of the country's second biggest and potentially most prosperous island.
More particularly, it has pushed such emerging Southeast Asian growth centers as Davao and General Santos deeper into the economic doldrums unleashed by the Asian financial crisis in late 1997.
Estrada has to talk and act tough with the MILF because he has his back to the wall. If he backs off or hesitates to wield his juez de cuchillo, the rebels stand to make mince meat of his already embattled presidency. If he succeeds against all odds in Mindanao, he could well catapult himself to the front ranks of Filipino Presidents.
A splinter of Nur Misuari's Moro National Liberation Front, the MILF claims to be fighting for a separate Islamic state. Critics say the MILF's differences with the MNLF come down to tribal differences between Mindanao-based Maguindanaos and Maranaos and Sulu-based Tausugs. Indeed, giving way to Muslim separatism amounts to Balkanizing Mindanao into warring Islamic and Christian enclaves. This tragic result can ensue, given that only three out of 16 million people in the island are Muslims.
Once grandly laying claim to 13 provinces for his autonomous region, Misuari had to settle for four small ones that are predominantly Muslim. There he has succeeded magnificently in proving that the greatest menace to the Muslim people is posed by their own politicians. Every bit as corrupt, if not more so, than their Christian counterparts, these Muslim politicians have long given a bad name to liberation movements they piously claim to represent.
The MILF, too, got its fair share of the manna from Manila. But what became of the billions in government assistance and payola? Well, irrigation funds ended up being used for concrete bunkers for the MILF and for highways that, until the military finally moved in recently, could only be used upon payment of tolls to MILF soldiers. Named after somebody's father, one of these ghost highways speaks volumes about feudal culture and the bad karma it brings to those who abuse power.
So what's Estrada supposed to do, given the absolute mess he has inherited in Mindanao? Continue to cuddle the MILF and the Abu Sayyaf? Buy another stretch of expensive but bogus peace? Or bite the bullet and re-establish, once and for all, the rightful authority of the Republic?
For better or worse, Estrada has chosen to meet the MILF with the only language rebels and bandits understand. This means force against force, but one tempered by compassion and statesmanship to truly redress the wrongs of the past. The point is to make Mindanao safe and prosperous for all Filipinos.
Nelson A. Navarro's e-mail address: <noslen11@yahoo.com>