Old wine in old bottles - Why And Why Not

The opposition Lakas-NUCD Party, not too long ago the pariah of pariahs, is on a high roll these days.

Proof of the pudding was that last week, former President Fidel Ramos, Mr. Lakas himself, came home from one of his foreign speaking engagements much like a conquering hero. A belated birthday party awaited him at his Makati headquarters and there was heady talk of a return to power much sooner than later. If not for Ramos then his protégé, Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who's just one heartbeat away from Malacañang.

"This feels like a victory party," said this former top Ramosian financial genius of the high-spirited gathering which lasted to the wee hours of the morning. "Where we came from, it looked like a mortuary."

Along with two other venerable gurus or "wise men" considered indispensable to administrations past and present, the rather indiscreet genius had just met with President Estrada and his distressed advisers on ways and means to keep the battered economy -- and the presidency -- reasonably afloat.

This was music to Ramos and company. In the month or so the former head-of-state and Lakas-NUCD patriarch was gone, the administration had lurched from one crippling scandal after another. Widespread has become the talk of an impending coup d'etat or some such drastic change in government amidst ever grimmer headlines of Estrada's popularity ratings crumbling to sub-zero levels. The air reeked with imminent change.

Although the Lakas torch has theoretically passed to Little Gloria, it is no secret that Ramos and his Sancho Panza, Joe de Venecia, continue to do most of the talking, if not call the shots, for the party. Little Gloria, for one thing, refuses to end her strange "political co-habitation" with Estrada.

Coincidence or not, Little Gloria wasn't around to take or share star billing. Off on a high-profile trip to China, Hong Kong and Israel, she's not expected back until the second week of April. The grapevine has been buzzing about an important "briefing" awaiting her in Washington -- the sort Ramos, former Defense Secretary Rene De Villa and Philippine National Police head Ping Lacson have just attended. Some reports noted that the three men were, in fact, in the US capital roughly at the same time.

Appearances, of course, can be misleading. Although there's been a feeding frenzy against the administration, most analysts believe it is in no immediate danger of overthrow. If at all, the non-stop media barrage and street demonstrations may be letting off political steam that, if bottled, could explode and create more harm.

What's clearer is that Estrada, barely 22 months in office, has hit the lowest point ever reached by his three predecessors. At a First Quarter Storm reunion, says this columnist who was part of the 1970 upheaval, everybody was agreed the present situation reminded them of the "good old days."

The Exclamation Point Movement, on the other hand, reminds people of the Corazonian yellow ribbons which presaged the downfall of the Marcos regime. So eerie are the similarities that Malacañang has even launched a counter-exclamation movement, evoking the "Marcos Pa Rin" campaign which was devoured by the EDSA revolt.

With Estrada under siege, all kinds of scenarios are being floated. The list of possible changes ranges from his resignation (unlikely) to impeachment (a growing possibility) to overthrow (violent or peaceful, take your pick).

More tractable are the supposed efforts to put the beleaguered President under some form of regency, meaning he reigns in splendor still, but somebody presumably more competent actually runs the government. In lieu of the exasperated babysitter, Executive Secretary Ronaldo Zamora and his failed challengers (Lenny de Jesus and the shortlived Prod Laquian), there's the lone samurai Ernie Maceda and the Titoy Pardo-Mar Roxas combine of the ascendant "classmates" faction lurking in the wings.

As always, the big and prickly question remains: how can the fiercely independent Erap ever be put on a short leash? As that unforgettable TV outburst against Raul Roco and Jun Yasay has proven beyond all reasonable doubt, Erap reserves the right to be Erap. His most patient and loyal advisers can only bite their tongues and hope for the best.

Thus enter Ramos and the Lakas. Six months ago, the opposition barely existed, most of its stewards having moved to the ruling party in the shameless "turncoat" tradition of the old Nacionalista and Liberals. It came to the point when nobody would come to see off, much less welcome, Ramos from his foreign trips. Suddenly, he's the man of the hour, even threatening to displace Little Gloria, the party's anointed standard bearer in 2004.

It's back to Ramos recycling his glorious record and Estrada raking up the ghosts of PEA-Amari and the Centennial Expo. The yellow crowd warns of another people power cataclysm. But harder to ignore are dire warnings of Ramosian trapo nonsense and Corazonian fury triggering a military "solution" could alter the political landscape beyond recognition.

Nelson A. Navarro's e-mail: [email protected]