Erap and Gloria - Why And Why Not

They're the oddest couple of Philippine politics. Coming from two different worlds and so obviously dancing to different music, they ought to have slugged it out and gone separate ways a long time ago. But they're still together after 21 long months of official bliss, still with no sign of impending break in the horizon.

Of course, the BW insider-trading scandal and the Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office mess have generated some wrinkles (and a few testy barbs) between President Estrada and Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. But not to worry.

The much-embattled President, in one moment of pique last week, suggested on CNN that if Little Gloria insists on "campaigning" (presumably in anticipation of the 2004 elections) she ought to vacate her concurrent Cabinet position as Secretary of Social Welfare without waiting to be fired.

As rumors mounted about a possible parting of ways, Estrada however took great pains to privately reassure some people close to both him and the supposed object of his ire that their mutually beneficial "live and let live" arrangement remains operative. Out of sight in Beijing, Little Gloria wisely kept silent.

For the time being, all talk of political divorce appears to be exaggerated and more the result of wishful thinking and intrigue than any sober analysis of the situation.

The long and short of the Erap-Little Gloria co-habitation is that there's no better arrangement in sight. They're better off as live-in partners leading separate lives than as an estranged couple dishing dirt on each other.

If Estrada throws out Little Gloria, he'll only succeed in turning into an open and powerful enemy somebody who's been, at the very least, a dedicated co-worker and staunch public ally.

And take note, Little Gloria is one enemy who can well serve as the principal rallying point of a go-for-broke destabilization campaign, she holding a job that, under the Constitution, puts her just one heartbeat from the presidency.

If Little Gloria dumps Erap, she'll have to go back to the impoverished salt mines of politics -- there to suffer the well-meaning but intrusive advice and machinations of self-appointed mentors like former President Fidel Ramos and Speaker Joe de Venecia.

Publicly, it's Erap who appears unperturbed by the prospects of political life without Little Gloria. It's the lady who's quick to dismiss such heresy, but with her patented Nora Aunor smile.

At last Wednesday's forum of the Greenhills Walking Corporation just before Little Gloria left for her high-profile visits to China, Hong Kong and Israel, the official line was that she's not the type who will walk out on Estrada. If she's not bodily thrown out, she'll stick like glue. A martyr act.

But Estrada, being the epitome of political machismo, is not one who's into the public humiliation of women. He will suffer Little Gloria just as much as Little Gloria is evidently prepared to suffer him. Theirs is the classical formula for a marriage that endures precisely because it is loveless and is based on frankly pragmatic factors like survival and money.

Still, Little Gloria is bound to become more and more insufferable for Estrada if his once-enormous popularity continues to crumble. Presidents are only human and cannot be amused by the thought of having a subordinate more popular than them, no matter how these subordinates vow fealty.

For administration honchos with presidential stars in their eyes like Defense Secretary Orly Mercado, Senator Frank Drilon and PNP Chief Ping Lacson, Little Gloria can only be a Trojan horse in their midst who has to be dismantled and thrown to the wolves before she becomes unstoppable.

Over on the opposition Lakas-NUCD side, the casting call is for Little Gloria to play Joan of Arc and hasten the downfall of Estrada even before 2004. There are few bridges, if any, left between Estrada and Ramos. The President, for instance, paints his tireless predecessor as the real brain or agitator behind Perfecto Yasay's efforts to nail down Estrada's friends as the conniving crooks behind the BW insider-trading scandal.

Estrada, too, has unleashed nasty demolition jobs like the multibillion-peso Centennial Expo scam on Ramos and his outraged cronies.

Harder for Little Gloria to cope than these partisan squabbles are the persistent efforts to transform her into some kind of "moral alternative" to the Estrada presidency.

"They're knocking at the wrong door," says one veteran analyst of certain groups envisioning an EDSA-style scenario to bring down Estrada. "Like Erap, she was never a crusader on a moral high horse, but a politician in the traditional mold. What's important for her is to win elections, not to make some grand statement or another."

In other words, Little Gloria does not have to give up the marbles she has for some pipe dreams. But if the tides suddenly shift towards reform and revolution, she knows she'll have to reinvent herself fast or sink.