How will Erap get out of that big hole?

President Estrada is facing a big dilemma. If he wants to regain his previously high popularity rating, he will have to take masa-oriented measures that will not, however, contribute to effective governance. But if he wants to become an effective national leader, he will have to take draconian measures that are very unpopular.

Right now, the government is short of funds to finance vital government projects. To raise such a huge amount of money, the Estrada administration will be forced to adopt new tax measures, like the Road Users Tax. This tax and other taxes that the government will adopt are very unpopular initiatives that will not gain points for President Estrada. Which means that the popularity rating of the President will continue to go down -- that is, if he wants to become an effective president.

There is a reality, too, that the Estrada administration has to cope with. There are international financial institutions, like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which virtually hold the Philippines hostage. Unless we accede to their demands, they will not be extending funds greatly needed, not only to meet our country's financial commitments but also to push through government projects that require huge global financing.

Now, what the IMF and World Bank demand are government measures that are very unpopular. For instance, they want us to liberalize our economic policies, even though we are not ready to compete with our global competitors. They also want us to accept free market policies, which means that there should be no regulated oil prices. Yes, the IMF, the World Bank and other international financing institutions are not going to allow us to have our way, just to please the masa.

Amid this backdrop, the Estrada administration appears to be helpless. With our country's crying need for massive funds to prop up the economy and enable the government to function effectively, President Estrada will have to bow to the wishes of the IMF, the World Bank, and other global creditors. And their wishes will not at all jibe with the populist bent of the Estrada administration.

The recent oil price hike has greatly reduced the number of vehicles in our streets and highways. Either the motorists want to save on precious gas, or they have no economic activities that can enable them to spend more on gas. A businessman with a medium-scale business visited me yesterday, and he cried out in anguish over the diminishing economic activities in our country. "It's okay to cope with the oil price increase, if there are economic activities to undertake. But business activities have slowed down, and some businesses have even been suspended indefinitely," he said.

I wonder whether the think tank of the Estrada administration is spending sleepless nights to cope with this disturbing reality. If the top people of the President are merely waiting for things to happen, and have not thought of the master plan to brighten up the economic horizon, then the Estrada administration is, indeed, in deep, deep trouble.

Despite hard and harsh times, many of our more blessed fellowmen still find time to think of their less fortunate brothers and sisters. For instance, my Good Samaritan Foundation continues to receive generous donations that are being used to lend a helping hand to the sick, the needy, the handicapped, and other disadvantaged sectors of society. And I wish to take this chance to thank the following donors:

* Lorna and Pat Lomongo of Greystone St., White Plains, Quezon City, who sent P1,000 through former Budget Commissioner Silver Sarmiento

* Vicente Lao of Quezon City, P14,000 (Equitable 0911562)

* Ms. F.A., P1,000

* Quezon City Board of Realtors, P2,000 (Allied No. 30423)

* Crizaldo and Cherryl Matias, P1,000 (Metrobank 0137859)

* Jose C. Banzon Jr., operations manager of United Laboratories, P5,000 (PCIBank 0126599)

* Teresita D. Lim, P5,000 (BA Savings Bank 5012089)

* An anonymous lady from Forbes Park, Makati, P1,000 (BPI 0152149)

Thanks a million, too, to Manuel S. Tan who, in celebration of his birthday last March 8, sent P5,000 (Unitrust 0236420), "This is my family's way of returning the favors from Almighty God Who has been showering us with many blessings," he said. God bless, too, Gabriel Angelo, Lex Angelie, Ian Miguel and Christelle Marie, all of whom are aged below six years old, who sent P500.

Dr. Conrad G. Javier, who has been practicing his medical profession in the United States for the past many years, wrote from Cleveland, Ohio, to say that he had just finished reading my book, Walking Through the Pathways of Life. "I find it very moving as it relates to your true-to-life experiences, touching on various subjects ranging from the very sick without health insurance, some honest and some capricious politicians, stories about very humble judicial servants, and few charitable elites, among many others," he said.

Dr. Javier, who makes it a point to visit his place of birth every year, together with his wife Aleli, an honor graduate of UST High School Class 1950, also noted the success stories of some cities of Metro Manila catching up with progress, like Marikina and Mandaluyong, due to the great vision of their mayors. And he added: "It is great to know foundations like the Good Samaritan Foundation which is always ever ready to extend a helping hand to many unfortunate and destitute patients and their families."

"Your book is a wake-up call for the government to implement some form of emergency financial fund and assistance for any unforeseen catastrophic illnesses that may afflict people in the lower socio-economic level in order to catch up with the state-of-the-art medical care of the 21st century," Dr. Javier added.

By the way, Walking Through the Pathways of Life is now being distributed in National Bookstore outlets at Harrison Plaza, Greenbelt, Ermita Manila, Glorietta, Ali Mall, Quezon Avenue, North EDSA, Katipunan, and Cubao Superbranch, and at Powerbooks Arnaiz, in addition to the outlets I cited yesterday.

Art A. Borjal's e-mail address: <[email protected]>