Warily eyeing China, Philippines may invite US back to Subic Bay

SUBIC BAY, Philippines — In a flash of anticolonialist fervor nearly a quarter-century ago, lawmakers in the Philippines expelled the United States from an enormous naval base here, then the largest overseas outpost of the US military. Promising to break free from the “shackles of dictatorship,” they declared that foreign troops would never return.

But with China forcefully pressing its claim to a vast expanse of sea west of here, the Philippines is now debating whether to welcome the US Navy back to the deepwater docks, airstrips and craggy shores of Subic Bay, which served as a haven for bruised battleships and weary soldiers during the Vietnam War.

It is also asking Washington for hundreds of millions of dollars in new funding to strengthen its own military, one of the weakest in Asia.

The change of heart is just one sign of the shifting strategic calculations in the region as President Xi Jinping of China has sought to reinforce Beijing’s claim to almost all of the South China Sea by turning reefs into islands and putting military facilities on them. Satellite photos taken last week appear to show China preparing to build a third airstrip on one of the new islands.

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US officials have objected to the buildup in contested waters, and the dispute is expected to be high on the agenda when Xi meets President Barack Obama in Washington on Thursday. Even as China has accelerated construction, though, the Obama administration has struggled to coordinate a response in Asia, where many countries are not sure how hard they should push back against China, the region’s economic giant, and how much they should rely on the United States, its dominant military power.

Several nations lay claim to parts of the South China Sea, through which pass some of the world’s busiest shipping routes and which is believed to hold significant oil and natural gas deposits. But China’s push to establish the sea as its own has hit closer to home in the Philippines than almost anywhere else.

An island with a civilian Filipino population is in the disputed area, and Chinese forces have occupied reefs and shoals the Philippines once controlled. “The fight hasn’t even started yet, and it looks like the Philippines government has already surrendered,” said Renato Etac, 35, a fishing boat captain who says Chinese vessels there routinely chase and try to ram his ship. “I can’t even count the Chinese ships I see, there are so many.”

Last year, the government in Manila signed a 10-year agreement that would let the United States station troops, weapons and matériel at bases across the Philippines, setting the stage for an American return to several facilities, including Subic Bay and the sprawling Clark Air Base nearby. But the pact has been tied up by a legal challenge.

Filipinos, by a wide margin, hold favorable views of the United States, polls show. There is ambivalence, however, about allowing US troops to be stationed in the country — a concern amplified by the Philippines’ history as a US territory from 1898 to 1946 — and anxiety over how China might respond.

“When the elephants brawl, ants should be spared,” said Rene Augusto V. Saguisag, one of a group of former senators who voted to expel US troops in 1991 and has petitioned the Philippines Supreme Court to block the military agreement. “The US and China should leave us alone and not involve us in the quarrels of the strong.”

Washington has expressed frustration with the delay in carrying out the agreement, which Obama announced with fanfare during a visit to Manila last year. The case is not expected to be decided in the Philippine Supreme Court until later this fall at the earliest.

If it goes forward, the pact would give the United States the ability to operate a stronghold on the shores of the South China Sea, less than 500 miles from the new islands built by the Chinese. Currently, US forces in the region rely largely on bases more than 1,500 miles away, in Japan and the US protectorate of Guam, for repairs.

The Philippines, prized for its deep, sheltered waters, is a linchpin in the Pentagon’s effort to shift resources toward Asia. The Subic Bay base — roughly the size of Singapore — played a role in virtually every US conflict of the 20th century. US and Japanese forces battled to control it during World War II, and millions of American personnel passed through it every year during the Vietnam War.

The base was reborn as an economic development zone after the US withdrawal in 1992. Luxury villas were erected atop former ammunition bunkers, and a marine park was built along the shore. Outside the local government here, a statue of a woman holding a dove celebrates the US withdrawal and a plaque reads: “Unchain us now.”

In addition to the legacy of US rule of the Philippines, another hurdle to military cooperation is the decrepit state of the Philippines armed forces, which have long suffered from waste and corruption, US officials say.

Despite a recent effort to modernize its military, the Philippines military still lacks basic equipment, including submarines and fighter jets. The most famous vessel in its fleet may be the Sierra Madre, a decaying World War II-era ship that the government ran aground nearly two decades ago to protect a contested reef. US military aid to the Philippines has increased significantly in recent years, more than doubling last year to $50 million. But that is lower than the hundreds of millions provided by the United States during the Cold War, when the Philippines was used to counterbalance Soviet support of Vietnam.

In private talks, the government of President Benigno Aquino III has pressed the United States for up to $300 million in aid this year, arguing that it needs a substantial buildup of planes and ships to deter Chinese expansionism, according to a senior Philippine official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because US officials have asked to keep the talks confidential.

But the Obama administration has so far rebuffed the request because it worries about corruption and the Philippines’ capacity to handle an influx of resources. A spokeswoman for the State Department noted that the Philippines was already the largest recipient of US military aid in Southeast Asia.

“The issue of the West Philippines Sea is a shared responsibility of the Philippines and the United States,” said Fernando I. Manalo, a Philippine defense official, who used the local term for the South China Sea in arguing for joint investments in military upgrades.

But Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska, a Republican member of the Armed Services Committee, said it would take time to rebuild trust between the two countries.

“If you look at what happened in Subic Bay, that was a pretty abrupt turnaround by the Philippines,” he said, referring to the American expulsion in 1992. “I think memory probably lingers in both the Philippines and the United States.”

On Pag-asa island, home to about 100 residents in territory claimed by the Chinese, Mayor Eugenio B. Bito-Onon Jr. has promised to resist what he calls the “Chinese invasion.”

Pag-asa island Mayor Eugenio B. Bito-Onon Jr. The New York Times/Jes Aznar

“This is a question of preserving our existence,” he said during a visit to Puerto Princesa, a nearby city, pointing to a wall-sized map that he uses to track the advances of Chinese ships and construction work.

Bito-Onon, 59, said he was worried that the Philippines was too weak to stand up to China, and that allies like the United States were too timid. “We seem to have lots of leaders and allies with no strong direction,” he said.

The Philippines has deployed coast guard ships in an effort to protect reefs and shoals from Chinese advances, and it has announced plans to station fighter jets and frigates at Subic Bay next year. It has also lodged a complaint before an international tribunal at The Hague, arguing that China’s claim to almost the entire 1.4 million square miles of the South China Sea violates international law. Chinese officials have said they will ignore the court’s ruling, contending that territorial disputes should be resolved through direct negotiations between the two countries.

In Manila last month, the top US commander in the Pacific, Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr., told Philippine officials that the United States did not want to take any military action that might distract from the case at The Hague, according to an individual briefed on the talks. But Harris also said that the United States planned to conduct more patrols in the South China Sea, the individual said.

Some Filipinos are worried that relying on the United States would delay efforts by the Philippines to build its own military. Others are concerned that the United States, despite its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, is too distracted by its fight against terrorism in the Middle East to help them.

“We can’t simply trust that others will come to save the day,” said Maria Turco, 42, a teacher in Subic Bay. “We have to take ownership.”