Antonio Tujan, IBON research director, said Poe — also known as FPJ and "Da King" — got 26.08 percent of the total votes, while Roco remained a close second with 22.46 percent.
The 1,162 respondents were asked whom they would vote for in the May 10 elections, Tujan said.
Sen. Noli de Castro, who had not yet accepted Mrs. Arroyo’s offer to be her vice presidential running mate when the survey was conducted, ranked third in the list, securing 14.46 percent of the votes.
President Arroyo ranked fourth with 10.50 percent of the votes, while Sen. Panfilo Lacson ranked fifth with 10.41 percent.
Tujan said compared to a survey conducted by IBON for the third quarter of last year, Poe only ranked third in the list with only 11.21 percent of the votes.
De Castro ranked second then with 23.81 percent, while Roco topped the list with 24.88 percentage of the votes, he added.
During the IBON third quarter 2003 survey, Mrs. Arroyo ranked fourth with 7.83 percent of the votes, while Lacson placed fifth with 7.14 percent.
For vice president, the IBON survey showed a tight race between pro-administration bet De Castro and Loren Legarda of the Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino (KNP).
In the survey, De Castro secured 25.39 percent of the votes while Legarda got 21.77 percent.
Tujan said it is a neck-and-neck fight between De Castro and Legarda as there is only a three percent margin between them.
Lacson ranked third with 7.23 percent of the votes followed by Senate President Franklin Drilon who landed fourth with 7.06 percent, and Vice President Teofisto Guingona in fifth place, with 6.08 percent.
In IBON’s third quarter survey for last year, Legarda was first in the voters’ list with 29.88 percent of the votes, while De Castro placed second with 20.28 percent.
Meanwhile, Mrs. Arroyo and Poe benefited from drafting De Castro and Legarda as their running mates, IBON said.
"Kabayan (De Castro’s nickname) will provide the positive perception for GMA," said Tujan.
"The people’s perception of GMA’s ticket will improve. Legarda’s decision to run as FPJ’s vice president will also add positive perception to FPJ’s ticket," he said.
However, Tujan was quick to add that having Legarda and De Castro as running mates will not immediately translate to votes for Poe and Mrs. Arroyo.
"Filipinos do not vote by slates," he said. "The vice president has no decisive effect. Philippine politics is not partisan but popularity politics. People will still vote for FPJ and GMA on their own merits."
Tujan said that later surveys would show that as the elections draw nearer, voters will only focus on three presidential bets — Poe, Arroyo and Roco.
Meanwhile, IBON said Mrs. Arroyo will not be benefited by the apparent split in the ranks of the opposition.
"Even if you have a split in the opposition, K-4 (the Presidents party, for Koalisyon ng Katapatan at Karanasan sa Kinabukasan) will not benefit from it," he said. "FPJ will still get a big number of votes even if there is a split."
Tujan said shifts in votes will only affect the standings of Roco and Poe.
"To win, the President needs to implement major concrete acts especially with regards to the economy," he said.
IBON also remains confident that elections will push through on May 10.
"We believe that there would be no elections if violence will escalate by December but (incidents of) violence ended in December so there would be elections," Tujan said.
Surprisingly, a large number of those surveyed by IBON from Dec. 1-14 also believe that the elections this year will not be clean and peaceful.
Results of the survey showed that of the 1,162 respondents asked, 44.92 percent believe that violence and cheating will happen in the elections, as compared to the 8.78 percent who disagreed, and the 46.3 percent who said they do not know.
Of those surveyed, 35.97 percent said they think the May 10 elections will not bring about positive change for the poor as compared to the 19.28 percent who said "yes," and the 44.75 percent who said they do not know.