47,000 deaths seen if ‘big one’ hits Metro

MANILA, Philippines — Up to 46,993 casualties and 156,000 injured people should be expected if a 7.2-magnitude earthquake hits Metro Manila, a former Office of Civil Defense (OCD) official said yesterday.

“We have a population of about 14,677,000. If we extrapolate it simply, in terms of casualties, (there would be) about 46,993 and 156,000 (injuries),” former OCD administrator Alexander Pama said during a plenary session of the Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction at the Philippine International Convention Center in Pasay.

The Philippines prepared a master plan 20 years ago, Pama noted.

“Between 2004 and 2024, a lot has happened. There is a need to improve on this. Even just the basics, the base statistics of it already needs to be revisited,” he said.

Pama is the former executive director of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

“Informal settlements are worrisome as these are areas where not much supervision is undertaken,” he said. “Can you imagine a 20-square-meter lot having five stories? And the stories are being added every year.”

A review of the 2004 master plan is underway after the United Nations said the Philippines must prepare for the eventuality of a “big one,” according to Environment Secretary Maria Antonia Yulo-Loyzaga.