‘Morocco-like quake could kill 34,000 in Metro Manila’

MANILA, Philippines — At least 34,000 fatalities and 114,000 injuries are expected in case an earthquake similar to the one that struck Morocco hits Metro Manila, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said yesterday.

Phivolcs Director Teresito Bacolcol issued the warning following the magnitude 6.8 temblor in Morocco, which killed more than 2,000 people.

The West Valley Fault is already ripe for another major earthquake, according to Bacolcol.

“The last time it moved was in 1658. Based on our study, the recurrence interval is between 400 and 600 years. If we will base the 400 (years), 1658 plus 400 years, that would be around 2058. So we do not expect it to be exact – by 2058, it could be earlier or it would be after – but the closer we are, the higher the possibility that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake will happen,” Bacolcol explained.

Under a magnitude 7.2 temblor, intensity 8 is expected to be felt in Metro Manila and nearby provinces, the Phivolcs said.

“Ground rupture is possible in Marikina, Pasig, Makati, Quezon City, Taguig, Muntinlupa as well as the provinces of Bulacan and Laguna,” Bacolcol said.

The projected death toll was part of a study conducted in 2004 by the Japan International Cooperation Agency on preparedness for a 7.2 earthquake or “the Big One” along the West Valley Fault.

“Our basis of casualties was based on the number of collapsed buildings, the population, the stability of the houses and the intensity of the shaking,” Bacolcol said.

He said the extent of the damage from a 7.2 quake would depend on the distance from the epicenter.

“If you are near the epicenter, the damage is more on residential areas and medium-rise buildings,” Bacolcol said.

He said the country needs to be prepared for the Big One.

“We need to have necessary preparations even if the quake’s epicenter is near or far. We have to develop an emergency plan,” Bacolcol said.