NCR positivity rate appears to have peaked – OCTA

MANILA, Philippines — With the percentage of people testing positive for COVID slightly down over the past week, a member of the OCTA Research group said the recent spike in the positivity rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) appears to have peaked.

Citing data from the Department of Health (DOH), OCTA fellow Guido David said the NCR reported a positivity rate of 25.2 percent on May 21, down from 26.1 percent on May 14.

“It looks like the trend has peaked,” he said in an update posted on Twitter.

The positivity rate measures the number of individuals who tested positive out of the total RT-PCR tests conducted. The World Health Organization previously recommended a positivity rate of five percent or lower to effectively manage the spread of COVID.

Despite the drop in positivity rate, new cases are still expected to increase as the reproduction number – which measures the number of people that a positive individual may infect – remains above 1.0.

David said it was currently at 1.15 based on their model.

Meanwhile, hospital occupancy in NCR decreased from 29.7 percent to 28.8 percent.

The NCR reported 612 new cases on Monday, down from 689 cases the previous day.

OCTA earlier warned that actual cases could be higher as the DOH data only include RT-PCR tests and not the more popular antigen tests.