Manila, San Juan at ‘moderate risk’

MANILA, Philippines — Manila and San Juan may now be considered as “moderate risk” due to the high reproduction number of and increase in new COVID-19 cases, the OCTA Research Group said yesterday.

While San Juan only recorded an average of six new cases per day from Dec. 21 to 27, OCTA said this represents a 200-percent increase from the two cases per day in the preceding week.

It also translates to an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of “moderate” 4.53 new infections per 100,000 population and a reproduction number of 1.82, which is considered as critical.

The reproduction number indicates the number of people that a positive individual can infect.

During the same period, Manila recorded an average of 31 daily new cases, up 121 percent from the preceding week.

The city has a “critical” reproduction number of 1.57 and “low” ADAR of 1.61.

From “very low risk” earlier this month, OCTA on Monday said Metro Manila may now be considered at “low risk” based on covidactnow.org metrics due to rising cases.

Citing data from the Department of Health, OCTA said the region had an average of 126 daily new cases from Dec. 21 to 27, up 64 percent from the preceding week. It had a “moderate” reproduction number of 0.92.

While still considered as “very low,” the positivity rate – which measures the number of positive results out of the total tests conducted – jumped to 1.7 percent from just 0.62 earlier this month.

Across the region, only five local government units (LGUs) remain classified as “very low risk” – Pateros, Valenzuela, Quezon City, Pasig and Taguig.

The remaining LGUs were tagged as “low risk,” with Las Piñas recording a “high” reproduction number of 1.33. Muntinlupa, Mandaluyong and Makati have “moderate” reproduction numbers, OCTA added.

In an interview with “The Chiefs” over Cignal TV’s One News on Monday, OCTA fellow Guido David said there is still no indication that the increase in new cases is caused by the Omicron variant.

“Definitely, we are seeing an uptick… But I have to remind everyone that this is the same thing that we saw last year,” he said, reiterating its possible link to the increase in mobility during the holidays.

“The risk level in NCR is still at low risk, compared to last year when we were at moderate risk… We’re still in a good situation right now,” he added.

Nevertheless, he reiterated their reminder for the public to continue following minimum health standards to prevent further transmission of the virus.

Navotas active cases jump to 20

Meanwhile, the active COVID-19 cases in Navotas climbed to 20 on Monday, just a week after tallying less than 10 cases during the holiday season.

Cases jumped from nine on Christmas Eve to 16 two days later.

Mayor Toby Tiangco appealed to his constituents to protect themselves from infection during Christmas gatherings.

“We are now monitoring 20 active cases after our city health office recorded four new cases,” Tiangco said on Facebook.

“Please let us all slow down in our social gatherings,” he added. – Marc Jayson Cayabyab