La Niña ends — PAGASA

MANILA, Philippines — La Niña, which brought above normal rain in some parts of the country since last year, has ended, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

“La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to prevail in June, July and August,” Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section, told The STAR in a text message.

Solis said ENSO-neutral conditions means neither La Niña nor El Niño is prevailing.

However, Solis said some parts of the country would still experience “slightly” above normal rainfall from June to September – the rainy season in areas under Type 1 climate, which include Metro Manila.

In terms of tropical cyclone occurrence, she said PAGASA expects a “normal” number this year.

An average of 20 cyclones enter the country every year. Two have so far entered the Philippine area of responsibility this year.

In an online climate forum on Wednesday, Solis cited forecasts that La Niña might reemerge this year.

“There are possibilities that La Niña might reemerge during the months of September-October-November, October-November-December and then November-December-January based on model average of both dynamic and statistical. But it’s too early (to say). There is... what we call predictability barrier or the time wherein the credibility of our forecast is low,” she said, citing the US-based Climate Prediction Center.

”Based on historical records, the past six La Niña events were back-to-back La Niña,” Solis said.