El Niño to develop late this year — Pagasa

MANILA, Philippines — The probability of El Niño developing later this year is increasing, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

El Niño is above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and associated with below normal rainfall.

 Ana Liza Solis, officer-in-charge of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section, said neutral conditions would continue until September, with the chance of El Niño increasing to about 68 percent by the end of the year to around 78 percent from February to April  next year.

“There’s a continuous warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in the past three months,” Solis said, adding it could reach El Niño level of 0.5 degrees this month and next month.

“Most international climate prediction centers agree that warming could reach to a weak El Niño this month or September and to a moderate level by February, March and April 2019,” she said.

Solis said generally near normal with patch of below normal rainfall is expected in some provinces in the Cordilleras and Ilocos this month.

By September, generally near normal rain is expected across the country.

Generally near normal rain is expected in October except in most areas in Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon), Central Luzon, the Cordilleras, Ilocos and Metro Manila, where below normal rainfall condition is likely to be experienced.

By November, below normal rainfall is expected in Abra, Cavite, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Masbate, most areas in the Visayas and Zamboanga peninsula.

Abra, Benguet, Apayao, Ilocos, Nueva Vizcaya, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Oriental Mindoro and Palawan will likely experience below normal rainfall by December.

By January next year, way below to below normal rainfall are likely to be experienced over most parts of Luzon, Western Visayas, Zamboanga peninsula, Western Mindanao and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.

The rest of the country will likely receive near normal rainfall.

Solis said generally near average to slightly warmer than average temperature is expected during the period.

She said eight to 11 more tropical cyclones might still enter the country before the end of the year.