Are we ready for an ecological catastrophe?

I was in Manila last Sunday afternoon and I was able to watch a TV coverage (I think it was a replay) over NBN of the Fr. Neri Satur Awards for Environmental Heroism where my good friend Press Secretary Cerge M. Remonde was the main guest. The first award was given to his Eminence Gaudencio Cardinal Rosales, which was accepted by Msgr. Nestor Serbo for consistently advocating for the protection of the Environment. Also cited were the First Power that operates the Wind Farm in Bangui, Ilocos Norte and the late Francis Magalona for his climate advocacy, the electric jeepney and the United Architects of the Philippines (UAP) just to name a few.

In his speech, Sec. Cerge pointed out that President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA) makes Friday an Environmental Day where he tasks Sec. Heherson Alvarez and DENR Secretary Lito Atienza. I’m sure that the President means well, but the question we’d like to pose is whether we are doing enough? Others are saying that it just might be too late for the human race.

While it didn’t rain in Manila last Sunday, it rained cats and dogs in Cebu, so we ask, should we simply dismiss this as mere April showers? While the rains usually bring cool temperatures, it was very warm and humid despite the rains. Hence it could only be the result of global warming. What else could it be? I read an interview by Fareed Zakaria of Nobel Physicist Steven Chu (April 20th issue of Newsweek) and it’s quite an interesting reading and I believe that we should take this very seriously.

Let me quote a few excerpts that should come as a wake up call for us. Zakaria asked the question, “Can we really prevent global warming? Or should we be thinking more of adaptation? Building coastal fortifications may be cheaper than halting the release of CO2.”

Chu replied, “Right now, the climate scientists feel that if all humans shut off carbon emissions today, it will still glide up by 1 degree centigrade. In the business-as-usual scenarios, Nicholas Stern says there’s a 50 percent chance we may go up to 5 degrees centigrade. We know that the Earth was like 5 or 6 degrees centigrade colder. That was called the Ice Ages.

Imagine a world 5 degrees warmer. The desert lines would be dramatically changed. The West is projected to be in drought conditions. And certain tipping points might be triggered. We can adapt to 1 or 2 degrees. More than that, there is no adaptation strategy….At that point, no matter what humans do, it’s out of our control. This is the realization in the last decade that has caused many of us to get very, very concerned. Adaptation at 1 or 2 degrees will be painful, it will cause a lot of hurt and pain, but adaptation at 5 or 6 degrees — I’m terribly frightened that that’s catastrophic.

Steven Chu’s message is crystal clear… that we’ve reach a tipping point and we should start doing something now or we shall all perish! This brings us to the question whether the Presidential Task Force on Climate Change (PTFCC) that formally launched the “Carbon Cutting Coalition” last April 17th in the former Payatas dumpsite in Quezon City is the step in the right direction?

Presidential Adviser on Climate Change Sec. Heherson Alvarez (whom we recently interviewed on our TV show) said, “We are at war, fighting for the survival of the Earth. The Coalition was formed to find solutions to the pressing problem of global warming and climate change. The flag, featuring the official logo of the coalition, will be the country’s official ‘seal’ of good housekeeping in as far as climate change solutions are concerned.”

Call me a skeptic, but while this maybe a very laudable move by the Arroyo administration, it is still plagued with the same problems that we Filipinos face in our everyday lives… that we are a nation that do not solve our long-standing problems, because people who are tasked to do their jobs simply just don’t do their jobs. All governments in this country had nothing that’s high priority, no project is so important to be given imminent status.

What I saw in the latest National Geographic Earth Report was that the frozen Tundra in Siberia has already thawed and is reaching the point of no-return. When that place thaws completely, it would release humungous amounts of CO2 that it would result in the most catastrophic calamity especially when the seas rise to as high as 20 feet or worse, 20 meters!

Are we in the Philippines prepared for this catastrophe? Are we prepared when the people living in the lowlands or seashores suddenly evacuate to higher ground where anarchy would ensue, where desperate people would camp and take over lands in higher ground, on the hills or mountains? I don’t think we are prepared for this. So a study ought to be done now on how the Philippine government should react to such an ecological catastrophe.

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For e-mail responses to this article, write to vsbobita@ mozcom.com. Bobit Avila’s columns can also be accessed through www.philstar.com. He also hosts a weekly talk show entitled, “Straight from the Sky” shown every Monday only in Metro Cebu on Channel 15 on SkyCable at 8 in the evening.