China on Asia charm offensive as US lies low

SINGAPORE (AFP) - The skipping of major Asian meetings by President George W. Bush and his top diplomat have left the US conspicuously absent in Southeast Asia -- in stark contrast to China, analysts say.

"There's a rising dragon and a wounded eagle," said Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), an independent think-tank.

But despite public statements of disappointment by regional diplomats, ties between the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are likely to weather any fallout, they said.

It is important, however, for US officials to recognise ASEAN's importance and for the administration that succeeds Bush to try to repair any damage done, the analysts added.

"I think it's a mistake. Some of them know it's a mistake but I think they are a bit in a bind," Tay told AFP.

US officials this week said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will skip the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and related meetings in Manila scheduled from August 1-2 because it coincides with a Middle East trip to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iraq.

It will be the second time since 2005 that Rice will miss the ARF, the only high-level official security group in the Asia-Pacific region. The 27-member ARF includes Russia, India, China, the European Union and North Korea.

Earlier this month the White House announced that Bush had postponed a September summit in Singapore with leaders of the 10 ASEAN states -- Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

"We certainly see China on a rise, on a soft charm offensive in ASEAN. Anything ASEAN wants from them, within reason, it is given to ASEAN," Tay said, also citing increasing levels of Chinese aid to poorer ASEAN states such as Cambodia and Laos.

In contrast, "you see an erosion of America's soft power" in the region, he added.

Although not connected, China's ascendance and the Bush administration's slackening "are affecting the dynamics here in Asia," Tay said.

"I think people look much more to China than they did pre-Bush. This is something the next (US) administration will have to deal with. It's time to think of an Asia that doesn't have America front and centre as a partner."

Mely Caballero-Anthony, an associate professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said Rice's absence from the ARF is "an indication of where ASEAN stands in the scheme of things" from the point of view of US foreign policy.

"It appears that in the pecking order, Southeast Asia comes second best to the US concern for the Middle East," she told AFP.

But she said Rice's absence and Bush's deferment of the summit "does not substantially affect US-ASEAN relations" because Washington remains engaged with the region in terms of trade, security and humanitarian assistance.

Caballero-Anthony said China has already been moving to play a larger regional role in Asia, irrespective of what the United States does.

"It's already taking on a more defined role with or without the US showing some slack," she said.

Tay, of SIIA, said that if the US "is distracted and can't play its game, I guess China will do better."

Former ASEAN secretary general Rodolfo Severino said that as long as missing the ARF meeting does not become a trend, US-ASEAN ties will not be affected.

Rice's deputy, John Negroponte, who will take her place at the Manila gathering, "is an old Asia hand" who knows the region well, Severino said.

US Ambassador to Singapore Patricia Herbold defended the US government's decision.

"I think this is such a difficult time and the crises that have to be dealt with can't be postponed," she told AFP.

"If they aren't dealt with now, the ramifications could be very great. So as much as it is a disappointment... it is certainly understandable under the circumstances."

Tay said Washington's view of East Asia is focused "on the flashing red lights" such as North Korea, the Taiwan Strait and terrorism, obscuring the bigger picture.

"At this stage... it is important for America to understand that ASEAN is changing and remains a critical player in East Asian regionalism," he said.

"The problem is not trying to get rid of America. It's trying to get America to remain engaged in the right way."