That’s the weather forecast for this upland resort city this Christmas season, and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) advises locals and tourists to hold on to their umbrellas and wear "not so thick" jackets.
Joseph Rios, the agency’s chief meteorological officer and senior weather specialist, said Baguio may experience an average of two tropical cyclones until December.
"The El Niño strengthened in October, (showing) a progressive growth," he said. The El Niño phenomenon occurs when the Western Pacific Ocean warms and cools in cycles.
Normally, east to west winds pile up warm water in the Western Pacific, while the ocean’s cold water rises to the surface along the South American coast, Rios said.
Every few years, the trade winds change, allowing the pool of warm water to move to the east where it blocks the rising cold water.
"These changes help trigger the global weather changes associated with El Niño," Rios said, citing a PAGASA report.
"The intertropical convergence zone, the tail-end of a cold front, the occurrence of three tropical cyclones, namely ‘Neneng,’ ‘Ompong,’ and ‘Paeng’ and the northeast monsoon greatly affected the country toward the last quarter of 2006," PAGASA said.
An El Niño episode is expected in the next three months and "will likely continue through April to June 2007," Rios said.
Despite the two typhoons expected to batter Baguio before the year ends, the city would experience warmer temperature ranging from 15 to 23 degrees Celsius due to El Niño.
The coolest temperature here — 6.3 degrees Celsius — was recorded on Jan. 18, 1976. This year, the coldest recorded temperature so far was 11 degrees Celsius on Feb. 4.