Cebu unprepared for flu pandemic, says health expert

CEBU — The Philippines, including Cebu which is in the path of migratory birds, is woefully exposed and unprepared for a flu pandemic which health experts worldwide have increasingly been warning of as very imminent.

Reynan Cimafranca, of the Regional Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit of the Department of Health, said Central Visayas has virtually no stocks of the vaccine that might be needed to combat the disease and no go-signal has been given to start procuring them.

At least three countries in Asia — China, Vietnam and Thailand — have had frightening experiences with H5N1, a particularly virulent strain of avian flu.

In China, more than a thousand migratory birds have died from the H5N1 virus, far greater than the number first disclosed, and close to a hundred people have succumbed to the disease after contracting the virus from the birds.

At the moment, humans can contract the virus from affected birds, but the disease cannot pass on to other humans, allowing simple bird culls to remain an effective means of stopping the disease dead in its tracks.

But what really worries health experts is the virus mutating into a new strain capable of human-to-human transmission.

The World Health Organization (WHO) warns that once this happens, the long-feared next pandemic can swiftly spread across the globe that is increasingly becoming borderless.

The last great flu pandemic was in 1918 when tens of millions of people died worldwide.

This time, experts warn the death toll could reach up to 50 million people, and even the United States and the European Union have admitted their preparations are vastly inadequate.

Some countries have started stockpiling on the anti-viral drug Tamiflu, manufactured by the Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche, as a frontline defense, but experts say there is as yet no real vaccine against an H5N1 mutant strain capable of human-to-human transmission. It is only when that happens that a drug can be developed to fight it, and that may take months.

"At this level, it has not been agreed that we start to stock on vaccines against the virus. Besides, the vaccines are very expensive and if and when we do start buying, it would not be much and thus, insufficient," Cimafranca said.

He said vaccines against avian flu can cost between P1,500 and P3,000 each. Any as yet undeveloped vaccine against a mutant strain of the bird flu capable of human-to-human transmission will definitely cost so much more.

Cimafranca said the standard protocol the Philippines presently relies on in case of a possible outbreak of avian flu is simply to isolate those who exhibit symptoms of the disease.

He admitted there is a great possibility of the virus reaching the Philippines owing to its lying squarely in the path of huge bird migrations.

Olango Island in Cebu is one of the officially designated bird sanctuaries owing to its being a favorite stopover for migratory birds.

Cimafranca said monitoring and guarding entry points of both people and birds is now a must for government to undertake at this stage.

"Our quarantine personnel at the airport will know if somebody manifests symptoms of the flu because we have detectors like those used during the SARS scare a few years ago," he said.

He suggested that the Bureau of Customs should do its part in monitoring the entry of smuggled meat and poultry since these could be carriers of the virus.

Dr. Pablo Balite, veterinary quarantine officer, said his office has been conducting awareness programs regarding bird flu and has been monitoring the presence of migratory birds at Olango and other places in the region.

The WHO, in its interim recommendation for the protection of persons in contact with animals potentially infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, advises that Tamiflu or oseltamivir be readily available to treat suspected H5N1 respiratory infections.

The WHO said avian flu is an infectious disease of birds caused by type A strains of the flu virus. Fifteen sub-types of the virus are known to infect birds, thus providing an extensive reservoir of flu viruses potentially circulating in bird populations.

To date, all outbreaks of the highly pathogenic form have been caused by influenza A viruses of sub-types H5 and H7. — With Fred Languido/ Freeman News Service