ESTRADA’S FALL PREDICTION; US think tank feels vindicated

The online global intelligence firm Strategic Forecasting or Stratfor.com said it felt "vindicated" in its prediction a year ago that Mr. Estrada "would not serve out his term."

"A year ago, Stratfor.com analyzed the situation in the Philippines," it said in an e-mail sent at about 9 a.m. yesterday. "At this hour, President Joseph Estrada is besieged on nearly all sides and his vice president (Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo) is moving to take power."

The United States-based firm said Mr. Estrada "outlasted popular opposition."

"Most elements of (the Philippines) have turned defiantly against him," it said.

"Across the country, key figures, security forces, politicians, the business community, abandoned (Mr.) Estrada, a former movie actor who became president just over a year ago only to be embroiled in a vast corruption scandal," Stratfor.com added.

It further quoted Arroyo as having "reportedly ruled out any amnesty" for Mr. Estrada.

Last year, when the Estrada government was being besieged by a series of corruption scandals, Stratfor.com predicted its early downfall and openly said that Mr. Estrada would not be able to finish his term up to 2004.

"(Mr.) Estrada’s opponents appear secure enough to be unwilling at this time to offer him a deal," the online firm noted.