This optimistic forecast came about as the price of canned tuna in the world market recently dropped to less than $14 per case from $26 last year, triggering a decline in the price of purse seine catches to a startling $350 per metric ton from $1,000 in 1998.
According to Stanley Swerdloff, senior fisheries consultant of the United States Agency for International Developments (USAID) Growth With Equity in Mindanao (GEM) Program, recent studies have shown the correlation between the El Niño and various tuna stocks.
He cited that in the latest forecast of the US Weather Service, a "normal" weather pattern is currently being experienced, or a transition from the last La Niña (above normal rainy season) to another El Niño period (characterized by a long drought).
The transition, Swerdloff said, is predicted to last until the third quarter of 2001. The next El Niño, however, will be relatively mild, unlike the 1997 event.
During the transition, "average" fishing is expected, which means a small reduction in catches of the prime yellowfin and the smaller skipjack species, which, according to industry sources, has been occurring in the past few months.
Swerdloff said that when the long drought returns by next year, it is anticipated that the "warm mass" of the tropical Pacific will move eastward and relocate tuna resources in the same direction.
Such a situation, he said, would spur an increase in catches of yellowfin in the Western and Central Pacific, the primary fishing grounds of top tuna-producing countries, including the Philippines, and a further reduction in landings of skipjack.
"If this is the case, we may find demand exceeding supply and a return to pre-1999 prices of purse seine fish," Swerdloff told about 300 delegates to the Second National Tuna Congress at the Family Country Hotel here yesterday.
For the past two years, the global tuna industry, Swerdloff said, has been highlighted by extreme volatility and financial crisis in purse seine and canned tuna.
"While 1998 and 1999 made it in the record books in terms of purse seine landings, it resulted in the production of more canned tuna that the market could consume," Swerdloff said.
"What we have now is a global tuna crisis that will certainly result in a worldwide shakeout," he added.
On top of low tuna prices, Swerdloff said the rising cost of fuel, which accounts for 40 to 50 percent of the total operating cost of purse seine fleets, is another "killer" of the industry.