No lead is ever safe

In the ongoing PBA Commissioner’s Cup, comebacks are making headlines as so far, two teams recovered from big early deficits to win in dramatic fashion. First, it was NorthPort storming back from a 16-point disadvantage to stun NLEX, 114-87 last Thursday. The next day, Meralco dug out of a 23-point hole to edge Phoenix, 111-109.  

In NBA history, only eight teams have recovered from a deficit of 30 or more points to win. The biggest turnaround was recorded when Utah recoiled from 36 down in the second quarter to shock Denver, 107-104, in 1996 with Karl Malone scoring 31 points, including 21 in the second half. PBA stats chief Fidel Mangonon said TNT came back from 30 down to defeat Burger King, 118-105, in 2009. Gilas’ comeback moment was at the Asian Games last year when the Philippines erased a 20-point deficiency in the second quarter to trim China, 77-76, in the semifinals.

There are 10 takeaways to consider in analyzing comebacks. First, it’s easier to recover from an early big deficit than from a late hole. Critical is how much time is left to adjust and bounce back. Second, teams should always start strong but finish stronger. But it’s better to unravel a slow start and a strong finish than a strong start and a slow finish. Third, don’t ease up if you’re up big early. Complacency is dangerous. Once you relax and think the game’s on ice even with lots of time left, that’s when the other team can steal it in the end. Fourth, the second unit has to sustain momentum of a strong start. If the reserves fall short of matching the starters’ fire, it will leave the door open for the other team to seize momentum.

Fifth, if you’re ahead, never let go of the pedal. Stay aggressive, don’t settle, keep the energy level high. Sixth, never take your opponent lightly. Even if you’re ahead by a large margin, don’t think of cruise control until it’s the final few minutes and the deficit is too large to overcome. Your opponent wants to win as badly as you so don’t open the floodgates for a surge. Seventh, if you’re down, early or late, don’t quit and fight for every possession. The worst that can happen is if you put your head down and surrender. Eighth, coaches must always be watchful of momentum shifts and at the first sign of a turn, remind the players on the floor to stand their ground. Ninth, trading baskets won’t give a team any headway if it’s trying to reverse a skid. Defense is key. Finally, igniting a run to turn a game around means unleashing a flurry of unanswered points. The recipe is a concoction of forcing turnovers, scoring in transition, knocking down shots from deep and wreaking havoc on the other side.