Let’s take a look at the key match ups that could decide the fate of this series.
Tim Duncan vs. Ben and Rasheed Wallace: Sans game four, Tim Duncan was magnificent against Phoenix despite sore ankles. He looks like a man on a mission and you know after the Lakers kicked him aside last year and the Pistons dethroning him, he wants payback. But after seeing the Wallace duo eliminate the most dominant player in the game two years in a row, Tim Duncan should be worried. Ben and Rasheed will take turns guarding Duncan, as they did O’Neal, and will give the Big Fundamental the best post defense he has seen the entire postseason. Tim Duncan, though, has a more versatile and polished offensive game than Shaq and will certainly rise to the challenge.
Bruce Bowen vs. Rip Hamilton: I think it’s a safe assumption that coach Greg Popovich will match his best perimeter defender on the Pistons’ number one scoring threat. This is match up really just goes one way as I don’t think the Spurs will depend on Bowen for scoring. They will, however, depend on him to chase the arguably best conditioned player in the game, much like Eddie Jones before him. Bowen’s task is simply to bother Rip and make him take tougher shots. On Rip’s end, he’s going to continue using screens to lose Bowen as he usually does and free himself up for open shots.
Manu Ginobili vs. Tayshaun Prince: This is of the same complexion as the Bowen-Hamilton match up with Tayshaun on Manu to shut him down. Tayshaun is worlds better offensively than Bowen so Manu will also have to play solid defense on him, while Rip can rest a bit guarding Bowen on the other end. Ginobili is the Spurs’ X-Factor. He’s the guy that that Tim Duncan can trust with the ball at crunch time to make a shot or create one for other people, as we saw in the Phoenix series. Tayshaun’s job is to make sure that doesn’t happen and force Ginobili to play out-of-control, something he is susceptible to doing.
Tony Parker vs. Chauncey Billups: For me, this is probably the second most important, if not the most important, in this series. Point guard play in the biggest stage in basketball is crucial to win a championship. This will match up will be about Parker’s speed and ability to penetrate against Billups’ strength and shooting touch. They are two very different basketball players and seeing them go at it should be very interesting. Both have the experience of leading their team to the championship. A lot will be on the shoulders of the point guards in this series. San Antonio will need Parker to get into the lane and create open shots and maybe get the Detroit frontcourt into foul trouble to relieve some pressure from Tim Duncan. The Pistons will need Billups to knock down his shots, get his team to move the ball and carry them in crunch time.
Prediction: Spurs in seven.