Can he win? Early frontrunners have never really fared well by the end of the season (Tamyra and Justin in season one, Clay in season two, La Toya in season three), but if he maintains the consistency he’s kept, fans will remain loyal and get him to the Kodak Theatre stage in May.
Bo Bice – The first of this season’s two rockers, Bo is more heavy-metal. His performance of Drift Away in the first week of the semifinals surprised, and his intense week-two cover of the Allman Brothers’ Whipping Post proved to be a revelation; his tepid rendition of I’ll Be, however, disappointed. His voice is deep and throaty and he knows how to rock the stage, but the hobo look has got to go.
Can he win? Simon has said that the competition is his to lose. Offbeat, unconventional contestants in the past have gone far, but is America ready for a rocker Idol? With a new wardrobe, a haircut and a razor, maybe.
Nadia Turner – Arguably the best female in the finals, Nadia seems to be the most polished performer of the group; Simon nailed it when he called her a young Tina Turner. She has the amazing ability to choose the most unlikely songs and infuse them with her infectious funk, electricity and style, and her disarmingly thrilling performance of Try A Little Tenderness was incredible.
Can she win? Definitely, if she remains consistent and doesn’t lose that spark.
Carrie Underwood – This 21-year-old Southern belle with the mega-watt smile sounds very much like Martina McBride and original Idol winner Kelly Clarkson, her controlled country pipes able to reach great heights. Her week one’s Could’ve Been was sweet and beautiful, and her week two take on Joplin’s Piece of My Heart was respectable, nowhere as bad as the judges made it seem; week three’s lackluster Because You Love Me, however, was a rare misstep for the Oklahoma native.
Can she win? Her attempt at rock wasn’t met with praise by the judges, so Carrie better stick to country if she wants to remain hot.
Can he win? It’s questionable, even unlikely, but he already has a huge fanbase (personally he’s one of my favorites); song selection is vital if he wants to get far in this competition.
Anthony Fedorov – Clay 2.0, as he’s fondly called, initially engrossed us all during the auditions when he first told us about his childhood struggle to speak. His voice and look are very similar to the aforementioned second-season runner-up, though he may not have enough striking personality to make it to the end.
Can he win? Unlikely; if he wants to make it far, he must find a way to distance himself from the Clay Aiken comparisons.
Nikko Smith – After fan favorite Mario Vazquez’s sudden departure from the competition, Nikko took over his place in the Top 12. Nikko, who, after last week’s Georgia On My Mind deserved a slot in the finals, is likeable in his schmuck-ness; vocal-wise, however, he has yet to excel above the rest.
Can he win? He may very well be this season’s George Huff; an advantage considering Huff was well-loved, a shortcoming considering he only reached the final five.
Jessica Sierra – Simon praised her as having the best female voice this season; turns out Mr. Cowell isn’t as discerning as he seems to think he is. Jessica’s singing is satisfactory if not consistently off-key, and has yet to show the slightest bit of personality. Ultimately, Jessica, for everyone’s sake, please ditch that Times Square-meets-country-bumpkin hooker look.
Can she win? No; or at least I hope not. There are much more deserving people this year.
Lindsey Cardinale – She’s pretty (kinda resembles season two’s Julia DeMato) when she doesn’t look like she’s on crack, but Lindsey is one of this season’s disposable finalists (Leah LaBelle, anyone?), a forgettable performer who (hopefully) won’t be around for a long time.
Can she win? Not in a million years; if she continues on for a while, it’s going to be like thin-voiced Jasmine Trias outlasting Jennifer Hudson and George Huff all over again.
Mikalah Gordon – She’s spunky, she’s fun, and she sounds like Fran Drescher. Though Mikalah doesn’t have the best voice in the race, her bubbly, in-your-face personality has made her one of the most talked-about contestants this season.
Can she win? Very unlikely, though effervescence did get Diana DeGarmo to the finals; she should stop trying to act more mature by singing Barbra and return to that spunk and exuberance she showed us in week one.
Scott Savol – Scott has yet to make an impression, something he has been unable to do with his forgettable performances. Could he be this year’s Matt Rogers, eliminated in the second week of the finals?
Can he win? No way; he is the most distant finalist of the 12, his performances have been so-so, and can be called Ruben Studdard without the velvet-teddy-bear charm.
Vonzell Solomon – She’s this season’s dark horse, and this early on, it’s difficult to predict how far she’ll make it. Vonzell’s got a good voice, and though her rendition of Respect didn’t match the vocal ferocity of Kelly’s much-praised season one take on it, Vonzell has enough talent and likeability to save her from an all-too-early elimination.
Can she win? Not quite, but if she is able to give a standout, original performance, she could come very, very close.
• Watch the second season of One Tree Hill, every Tuesday at 8 p.m. on ETC. Nathan and Haley’s out-of-nowhere we-got-married cliffhanger at the end of last season shocked us all in both narrative context and the writers’ attempt at shameless stunt plotting, but this sudsy and angsty drama is just all-too-compelling to miss.
• Watch Lost, every Thursday at 9 p.m. on AXN. With such creations as Felicity and Alias, JJ Abrams has established himself as one of television’s most inventive and original minds, a David E. Kelley for a whole new generation. His latest offering is Lost, a Survivor meets Lord of the Flies drama about 48 survivors of a horrific plane crash stranded on a remote island in the South Pacific.