2004 Oscar picks & predictions
February 27, 2004 | 12:00am
For this year’s Oscars, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences shocked everyone with their nominations. Cold Mountain didn’t get Best Picture and Best Director nods, and a Best Actress nod for last year’s winner Nicole Kidman. An undeserving Seabiscuit took Mountain’s place for the top prize. City of God earned Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay nominations. Thirteen-year-old Keisha Castle-Hughes was nominated for Best Actress, making her the youngest ever, and many other unknowns received nominations. After the controversial screener ban brouhaha, the Academy gives Hollywood the irony of shocking nominations, and yet the most predictable contest in years; so many categories have sure locks. However, considering all the surprises that have already occurred, I guess I shouldn’t speak too soon.
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
What Will Win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Should we even doubt the magnetism and power of this film? The Return of the King has everything going for it; its only problem is that it’s a fantasy film. However, I have a feeling this is the year the Academy’s fantasy film curse will be broken. Seabiscuit has absolutely no chance of winning. It isn’t even that good a movie, and if it does receive this prize, it would be the biggest shock in Oscar history. LOTR’s only real competitor is Mystic River, which older voters will go for. But just like Aragorn did, there’s very little doubt the King won’t take its rightful Oscar throne.
What I Want To Win: Mystic River. Though I loved The Return of the King, I loved Mystic River even more with its incredibly intense acting, great writing and heartfelt directing; it was the best-acted film of 2003. However, I’m still extremely bitter about Cold Mountain’s Best Picture snub. If a marginally acceptable film like Seabiscuit can get a nom, why can’t a profound, amazing, intense, Oscar-caliber drama receive one?
Odds of Winning: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, 4-5; Lost in Translation, 1-5; Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, 1-7; Mystic River, 1-3; Seabiscuit, 1-80.
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Peter Weir, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
Who Will Win: Peter Jackson. By voting for Peter Jackson for directing King, many Academy members will be rewarding his work for the entire trilogy, which is wrong; they should only be voting for what is nominated. But his work alone in the triumphant third installment already merits an Oscar, making him the most deserving of the bunch.
Who I Want To Win: Sofia Coppola, the first American female ever to be nominated for Best Director. I’d want her to win just for being a successful woman in a predominantly male industry. Plus, she wrote, produced and directed the wonderful and hilarious Lost in Translation.
Odds of Winning: Meirelles, 1-15; Jackson, 3-4; Sofia Coppola, 1-5; Weir, 1-8; Eastwood, 1-4.
Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
Samantha Morton, In America
Charlize Theron, Monster
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
Who Will Win: Charlize Theron. With her incredible transformation into real-life serial killer Aileen Wuornos, Charlize Theron continues the trend Halle Berry started in 2002 with her Monster’s Ball win and that was succeeded with The Hours’ Nicole Kidman last year: go ugly, win an Oscar. The Academy loves it when a beautiful, glamorous actress sacrifices looks for art’s sake, and this is the reason Theron has been winning every award. Her problem is that being a frontrunner isn’t always good; ask Sissy Spacek, who, in 2002, was leading the Best Actress race, but which then became a Berry-Kidman (Moulin Rouge) battle that the former won. Theron’s only major competition is Something’s Gotta Give’s Diane Keaton, who could pull an upset for her delightful performance, which included exposing her breasts. And doesn’t everyone love a nude, old yet gorgeous Hollywood actress not ashamed of her saggy breasts? However, Theron’s current momentum is almost impossible to trump.
Who I Want To Win: Keisha Castle-Hughes. At 13, she’s the youngest Best Actress nominee ever, and made everyone who saw Whale Rider pull out the Kleenex. I’d love to see her walk up the stage, the whole world stunned, and prove to everyone that age isn’t anything but a number.
Odds of Winning: Castle-Hughes, 1-8; Keaton, 1-3; Morton, 1-10; Theron, 5-6; Watts, 1-5.
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law, Cold Mountain
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Sean Penn, Mystic River
Who Will Win: Sean Penn. It’s practically a given that everyone wants Johnny Depp to take the Best Actor prize for his hilariously wacky performance as Captain Jack Sparrow; only problem is that Pirates of the Caribbean definitely isn’t the aristocratic, refined Oscar material the Academy usually goes for. However, don’t rule out an upset by Depp. This close race is certainly between Sean Penn and Bill Murray. Murray’s bad reputation during the filming of his movies goes against him, and Penn’s political comments and not showing up at the Golden Globes (in which Murray’s Best Comedic Actor acceptance speech upstaged everyone else’s) will cost him votes. But since drama usually trumps comedy, I have a feeling Penn will win.
Who I Want To Win: Sean Penn. His pure, heartbreaking performance was one of the unforgettable performances of 2003, and whether or not you agree with the New York Times when they said that Penn’s performance was "not only one of the best performances of the year, but also one of the definitive pieces of screen acting in the last half-century," there’s no denying its powerful emotional intensity.
Odds of Winning: Depp, 1-4; Kingsley, 1-8; Law, 1-9; Murray, 1-2; Penn, 2-3.
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April
Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
Holly Hunter, Thirteen
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
Who Will Win: Renee Zellweger. This race initially began with Renee Zellweger leading the pack with a huge lead, voters sympathetic that she had to star alongside Nicole Kidman, the woman who beat her to the Best Actress Oscar last year. At the time, Marcia Gay Harden was the other favorite, and everyone was asking "Shohreh Aghdash-who?" Now, however, Zellweger’s lead has slightly slipped, Gay Harden has fallen back, and the Iranian Aghdashloo, with her powerful performance in House of Sand and Fog, has dramatically caught up. I still feel Zellweger will win this, though, considering the Supporting Actress and Actor categories’ unpredictable history, any one of the other four could pull an upset.
Who I Want To Win: Renee Zellweger. She was so funny in an otherwise humorless Cold Mountain, and was even able to steal the show from both Jude Law and Nicole Kidman.
Odds of Winning: Aghdashloo, 3-5; Clarkson, 1-4; Gay Harden, 2-3; Hunter, 1-8; Zellweger, 4-5.
Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams
Djimon Hounsou, In America
Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai
Who Will Win: Tim Robbins. Tim Robbins has practically no competition whatsoever, let alone competition good enough to contend his haunting performance in Mystic River. The only thing going against him is his incessant politicizing with long-time "companion" Susan Sarandon (when will they ever get married?). However, as I’ve said, this category can be very unpredictable, making an upset by any of the other four still possible.
Who I Want To Win: Tim Robbins. Another near-perfect performance from Mystic River, Robbins’ was disturbing and haunting, especially when paired with his on-screen wife Marcia Gay Harden as the weak, quiet Celeste.
Odds of Winning: Baldwin, 1-5; Del Toro, 1-6; Hounsou, 1-10; Robbins, 3-4; Watanabe, 1-7.
Dirty Pretty Things, Steve Knight
Finding Nemo, Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson and David Reynolds
In America, Jim Sheridan, Naomi Sheridan and Kirsten Sheridan
Lost in Translation, Sofia Coppola
What Will Win: Lost in Translation. In the weakest and most boring category of this year, Lost in Translation will win just because it’s the only Best Picture nominee in this category. However, Finding Nemo could definitely pose serious competition since voters would reward the animated film this award as a consolation for the Best Picture nomination it deserved yet didn’t receive.
What I Want To Win: Finding Nemo. Witty and hilarious, at the same time poignant and heartfelt, Finding Nemo is one of the rare films that looks good, has a mind and a heart.
Odds of Winning: The Barbarian Invasions, 1-8; Dirty Pretty Things, 1-11; Finding Nemo, 1-3; In America, 1-6; Lost in Translation, 3-5.
City of God, Braulio Mantovani
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens and Peter Jackson
Mystic River, Brian Helgeland
Seabiscuit, Gary Ross
What Will Win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Big, extravagant epics and Best Picture locks don’t usually win the Original and Adapted Screenplay awards as often as you’d expect (Ben-Hur, Braveheart, The English Patient, Lawrence of Arabia, West Side Story, Gladiator, Oliver! and Chicago were all Best Picture winners that didn’t receive a Screenplay Oscar, and Titanic wasn’t even nominated), making this category one of the most unpredictable of the year. Mystic River could win since it’s so profoundly written, and American Splendor could win since it’s just so damn beloved by critics. Don’t rule out City of God just because it’s a foreign film; the Spanish Talk To Her won last year. Plus, it surprised everyone by receiving this and a Best Director nod. And Seabiscuit is a literal dark horse; voters could give it as a consolation since it can’t possibly win Best Picture. But it’s the King who I predict will rule, despite it being an epic.
What I Want To Win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. It’s simply amazing how Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens and Peter Jackson could adapt J.R.R. Tolkien’s final chapter into a film with such powerful cinematic magnitude and immensity.
Odds of Winning: American Splendor, 1-5; City of God, 1-5; The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, 3-4; Mystic River, 2-3; Seabiscuit, 1-4.
Finding Nemo
The Triplets of Belleville
What Will Win: Finding Nemo. Though Spirited Away’s win last year gave animated art films eminent hope, offering art house darling The Triplets of Belleville a seeming edge, there’s no questioning Finding Nemo’s much-deserved popularity.
What I Want To Win: Finding Nemo. One of the best animated films ever made, this instant classic bursts with stunning visuals, wit, originality, and disarming emotion.
Odds of Winning: Brother Bear, 1-100; Finding Nemo, 3-4; The Triplets of Belleville, 1-3.
Capturing the Friedmans
The Fog of War
My Architect
The Weather Underground
What Will Win: Capturing the Friedmans. A surprising crowd-pleaser, Capturing the Friedmans never lost its momentum with its word-of-mouth campaign and controversial topic.
What I Want To Win: Capturing the Friedmans. Friedmans plays like a fictional thriller filled with suspense, shocks and gripping trepidation, when it’s a doc about pedophilia in a Long Island family.
Odds of Winning: Balseros, 1-10; Capturing the Friedmans, 4-5; The Fog of War, 1-2; My Architect, 1-8; The Weather Underground, 1-9.
Evil, Sweden
The Twilight Samurai, Japan
Twin Sisters, The Netherlands
Zelary, Czech Republic
What Will Win: The Barbarian Invasions. Canada’s The Barbarian Invasions is by far the film in this category to receive the most publicity, especially with its Best Original Screenplay nod and all the critics’ awards and positive reviews it received. I’m sure very few Academy voters have seen all the films nominated here, which will make them go for the only one of the four that they are familiar with.
What I Want To Win: The Barbarian Invasions. Touching, while funny as well, this wonderful family drama definitely deserves the award.
Odds of Winning: The Barbarian Invasions, 4-5; Evil, 1-6; The Twilight Samurai, 1-6; Twin Sisters, 1-6; Zelary, 1-6.
BEST PICTURE
The 76th Annual Academy Awards will be shown live on RPN, Monday at 10 a.m. and a primetime broadcast at 7 p.m. It will also be shown on March 3, Wednesday, on Star Movies.
Watch Something’s Gotta Give. Diane Keaton and Jack Nicholson star in this steamy comedy perfect for the middle-aged to senior crowd.
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