2004 Golden Globe predictions
January 23, 2004 | 12:00am
Here we are again, the Golden Globes. Held every end of January, the Globes is the second most prestigious award in Hollywood, making it the most important and accurate Oscar forecaster. It is voted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), with its members consisting of journalists from around the world. The Golden Globes also, unlike the Academy Awards or the Emmys, reward both the film and television industries. Here are my predictions for the 61st Annual Golden Globe Awards.
• Seabiscuit
• Cold Mountain
• The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
• Master And Commander: The Far Side Of The World
• Mystic River
What will win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King. The HFPA – and I predict so do the Oscar voters – want to honor this amazing trilogy by rewarding Best Picture-Drama to its eldest – and best – progeny. This race is a three-way one between King, Cold Mountain and Mystic River, with River, however, more celebrated for its acting, canceling it out. King’s only problem is Cold Mountain, the film with the most nominations (eight). Voters could be hesitant giving a fantasy film the Best Picture prize and going for the more traditional epic love story, making a Cold Mountain upset very probable.
What I want to win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King. An incredible cinematic masterpiece, King is a moving, beautiful work of art.
BEST PICTURE — MUSICAL or COMEDY
• Big Fish
• Bend It Like Beckham
• Finding Nemo
• Lost In Translation
• Love Actually
What will win: Lost In Translation. Translation already has its Best Picture — Musical or Comedy Golden Globe in the bag, with Finding Nemo its only major competition. Everyone has forgotten about how funny Bend It Like Beckham was, Big Fish didn’t get as much buzz as expected, and Love Actually, though sweet and hilarious, just isn’t as good as its competition. That leaves the Bill Murray-starrer against the adorable little clownfish. Indie Translation may not seem like typical Golden Globe material (the HFPA loves big studio pictures), but it has everything going for it. However, with Toy Story 2 winning in 1998, Nemo could definitely pull an upset.
What I want to win: Either Lost In Translation or Finding Nemo. Both are equally moving and touching, at the same time retaining the hilarity needed.
BEST DIRECTOR
• Peter Weir, Master And Commander: The Far Side Of The World
• Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
• Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain
• Peter Jackson, The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
• Sofia Coppola, Lost In Translation
Who will win: Peter Jackson. How can voters ignore all the hard work this man put into his masterpiece? A three-way race between Jackson, Eastwood and Coppola, the latter two may have the marquee names (Coppola’s is courtesy of her legendary director father), but it’s Jackson who has succeeded the most.
Who I want to win: Peter Jackson. An amazing artist, Jackson created the best film trilogy of our time.
BEST ACTOR in a DRAMA
• Sean Penn, Mystic River
• Jude Law, Cold Mountain
• Ben Kingsley, House Of Sand And Fog
• Russell Crowe, Master And Commander: The Far Side Of The World
• Tom Cruise, The Last Samurai
Who will win: Sean Penn. Tom Cruise still doesn’t deserve any respectable award, so that cancels him out. Cold Mountain hasn’t been praised much for its acting, crossing Jude Law out. And Russell Crowe’s great performance is overshadowed by Master And Commander’s sheer enormity, also crossing him out. This leaves Penn and Ben Kingsley. But Sean Penn’s remarkable talent has yet to be acknowledged, and his powerful, heartbreaking performance in Mystic River will do the job.
Who I want to win: Sean Penn. Penn’s compelling portrayal of grief and human darkness will forever stay with you.
BEST ACTRESS in a DRAMA
• Evan Rachel Wood, Thirteen
• Charlize Theron, Monster
• Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain
• Cate Blanchett, Veronica Guerin
• Uma Thurman, Kill Bill: Volume 1
• Scarlett Johansson, Girl With A Pearl Earring
Who will win: Charlize Theron. It’s so difficult for me to type this into the computer, but being a die-hard Nicole Kidman fan, I’m so disappointed to say that Theron will win the Best Actress trophy for her astonishing transformation into executed serial killer Aileen Wournos. Nicole’s role just didn’t require the emotional acting intensity that made her win last year for The Hours, while Evan Rachel Wood might look too young to voters, and Kill Bill: Volume 1 just seems too action-y for seniors, taking Thurman out of the race (though she’s the one who deserves it the most).
Who I want to win: Nicole Kidman. She already deserves the award for just being Nicole Kidman!
BEST ACTOR in a MUSICAL or COMEDY
• Billy Bob Thornton, Bad Santa
• Jack Black, School Of Rock
• Johnny Depp, Pirates Of The Caribbean: The Curse Of The Black Pearl
• Jack Nicholson, Something’s Gotta Give
• Bill Murray, Lost In Translation
Who will win: Bill Murray. Murray deserves the trophy for his poignantly heartbreaking, funny performance. Only one problem: Because it’s the press that’s voting, Murray’s bad rep with journalists is bound to surface. Still, with his only serious competition Nicholson and Depp, Murray can squeeze in a win.
Who I want to win: Either Johnny Depp or Jack Black. Depp and Black proved that given the right material, actors can turn comedy into an art form.
BEST ACTRESS in a MUSICAL or COMEDY
• Jamie Lee Curtis, Freaky Friday
• Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
• Diane Lane, Under The Tuscan Sun
• Helen Mirren, Calendar Girls
• Scarlett Johansson, Lost In Translation
Who will win: Diane Keaton. Many still think Johansson should’ve been named as a supporting role, Curtis and Lane’s performances have long been forgotten and Calendar Girls is more of an ensemble film. This leaves Diane Keaton with the trophy for delightful performance in Something’s Gotta Give.
Who I want to win: Jamie Lee Curtis. Curtis’ passionately sidesplitting performance as a teen trapped in a 40-year-old’s body was the best of her career.
Here are my picks for the other film categories:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
• Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
• Albert Finney, Big Fish
• Peter Sarsgaard, Shattered Glass
• Tim Robbins, Mystic River
• Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai
Who will win: Tim Robbins.
Who I want to win: Tim Robbins.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
• Patricia Clarkson, Pieces Of April
• Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
• Hope Davis, American Splendor
• Holly Hunter, Thirteen
• Maria Bello, The Cooler
Who will win: Renee Zellweger.
Who I want to win: Either Patricia Clarkson or Hope Davis.
BEST SCREENPLAY
• Brian Helgeland, Mystic River
• Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain
• Sofia Coppola, Lost In Translation
• Jim Sheridan, Naomi Sheridan & Kirsten Sheridan, In America
• Richard Curtis, Love Actually
Who will win: Sofia Coppola.
Who I want to win: Either Sofia Coppola or Richard Curtis.
TELEVISION BEST DRAMA SERIES
• Six Feet Under (HBO)
• The West Wing (NBC)
• Nip/Tuck (F/X)
• CSI: Crime Scene Investigation (CBS)
• 24 (Fox)
What will win: Nip/Tuck. The HFPA loves beating the Emmys to the punch, rewarding freshman shows early on (i.e. F/X’s The Shield winning Best Drama Series last year). The West Wing, despite winning the Emmy it didn’t deserve, still isn’t as good as it used to be, especially after creator Aaron Sorkin’s exit. Voters might think CSI has won enough because of its high ratings, and Six Feet Under just didn’t have enough episodes this year to register into our collective memory. And still, older voters may see 24 as too radical a show. This leaves the much talked-about plastic surgery drama to win the prize.
What I want to win: Either Six Feet Under or CSI: Crime Scene Investigation. Six Feet Under is still an incredible show, each episode well crafted, while CSI is just simply cool.
BEST MUSICAL or COMEDY SERIES
• Monk (USA)
• Everybody Loves Raymond (CBS)
• Sex And The City (HBO)
• Arrested Development (Fox)
• The Office (BBC America)
What will win: Arrested Development. Though embraced by the Emmys, not everybody loves Raymond in the Golden Globes; except for this one, it was completely shut out in the major categories. Sex And The City, the Globes’ darling (it has won this category a zillion times), may pull an upset in its final season because of voters’ emotional connection to it, while the hilarious Monk just can’t hack the competition. This race is between the hysterical Britcom The Office and Arrested Development, this year’s critics’ darling that nobody watched. Voters will go for Development; its win will serve as a plea to Fox to keep the show on.
What I want to win: Sex And The City. Now on the show’s last four episodes, I’d love to see Carrie and the gang walk up the stage in their Manolos one last time.
BEST ACTOR in a DRAMA SERIES
• Anthony LaPaglia, Without A Trace (CBS)
• Martin Sheen, The West Wing (NBC)
• Kiefer Sutherland, 24 (Fox)
• Michael Chiklis, The Shield (F/X)
• William Peterson, CSI: Crime Scene Investigation (CBS)
Who will win: William Peterson. Sutherland and Chiklis both fall into the "Angry Men With Guns" category, making them difficult to distinguish. LaPaglia is fantastic in Without A Trace, but being more of an ensemble show, voters may overlook his talent. The West Wing may bring Sheen down with it, thus leaving Peterson. CSI, like Trace and Wing, is also more focused on its ensemble, but there must be a reason why first-time nominee Peterson was given a nod.
Who I want to win: William Peterson. Who wouldn’t want to give the nerdy, incredibly witty Grissom a Golden Globe?
BEST ACTRESS in a DRAMA SERIES
• Jennifer Garner, Alias (ABC)
• Joely Richardson, Nip/Tuck (F/X)
• Amber Tamblyn, Joan Of Arcadia (CBS)
• Allison Janney, The West Wing (NBC)
• Frances Conroy, Six Feet Under (HBO)
Who will win: Amber Tamblyn. Another thing the HFPA loves is giving pretty young actresses Globes during their very first season (i.e. Jennifer Garner for Alias in 2001 and Keri Russell for Felicity in 1999). This year, it’s Amber Tamblyn for her new hit show Joan Of Arcadia crossing her fingers that history will repeat itself. However, Richardson and Janney pose tough competition.
Who I want to win: Jennifer Garner. One word: Alias.
BEST ACTOR in a MUSICAL or COMEDY SERIES
• Eric McCormack, Will & Grace (NBC)
• Ricky Gervais, The Office (BBC America)
• Matt LeBlanc, Friends (NBC)
• Tony Shaloub, Monk (USA)
• Bernie Mac, The Bernie Mac Show (Fox)
Who will win: Ricky Gervais. Mac can get annoying, while Shaloub won last year. Friends wasn’t nominated for anything else in the major categories, which looks bad for LeBlanc, and Will & Grace isn’t getting enough buzz for a McCormack upset. This leaves the unknown yet hysterical Gervais, who could definitely be the dark horse that wins this race.
Who I want to win: Matt LeBlanc. Though Joey is my least liked Friend, the HFPA should at least award something to the show, already in its last season, to compensate for the Best Musical or Comedy Series nomination it deserved yet didn’t receive.
BEST ACTRESS in a MUSICAL or COMEDY SERIES
• Bonnie Hunt, Life With Bonnie (ABC)
• Reba McEntire, Reba (The WB)
• Debra Messing, Will & Grace (NBC)
• Bitty Schram, Monk (USA)
• Sarah Jessica Parker, Sex And The City (HBO)
• Alicia Silverstone, Miss Match (NBC)
Who will win: Alicia Silverstone. McEntire being nominated was shocking, and buzz isn’t enough for a win. Same goes for Hunt, whose material just can’t make the cut. Messing might have won the Emmy, but Will & Grace, which wasn’t even nominated for Best Musical or Comedy Series, isn’t getting much buzz. Schram could definitely pull an upset for Monk, but voters might think it’s more of Tony Shaloub’s show. This leaves Golden Globe veteran Parker, who could win since the HFPA simply adores her, and newbie Silverstone, who is excellent in Miss Match. I’ve got a feeling they’ll go with the neophyte.
Who I want to win: Sarah Jessica Parker. Sex And The City is still one of the funniest shows out there, and she does a great job adding heart and compassion with her intolerable charm.
TV
• Watch American Idol and World Idol. Finally, one of my favorite TV shows has arrived! American Idol is the singing talent show in which America gets to vote for it’s next musical superstar, while World Idol is the two-part special in which first season AI winner Kelly Clarkson battles with ten other Idols from around the world, competing for the title of World Idol. American Idol premieres on Thursday, February 5, and World Idol premieres tomorrow night, both on Star World.
• Watch the 61st Annual Golden Globe Awards. The Golden Globes’ primetime telecast will be shown on Monday night on Star World.
CDs
• Listen to "The Young And The Hopeless" by Good Charlotte. This album was released in 2002, but I was just introduced to this band a few weeks ago. The best punk-rock band I’ve ever heard, they shy away from the juvenile lyrics similar bands like Simple Plan croon and deal with weightier issues (the departure of the lead singers’ father when they were kids in "The Story Of My Old Man" and "Emotionless," and suicide in "Hold On"), while still keeping songs incredibly catchy.
37 days till the 76 st Annual Academy Awards
Two days till the 61 st Annual Golden Globe Awards
16 days till the 46 th Annual Grammy Awards
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