1.5 degrees Celsius: The elusive goal

The good news before the bad.

The latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) convened by the United Nations says that our overheated planet has made slight progress towards managing climate change because of the falling costs of clean energy.

But the bad news is the dire warning that unless countries “drastically accelerate efforts over the next few years to slash their emissions from coal, oil and natural gas, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, will likely be out of reach by the end of this decade.”

1.5 degrees Celsius or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit is the threshold beyond which the dangers of global warming will be open to us – worsening floods, droughts, wildfires and ecosystem collapse. Humans are recorded to have already heated the planet by an average of 1.1 degrees Celsius since the 19th century, largely by burning fossil fuels for energy.

But as The New York Times reports, the goal is nothing short of daunting. To attain just 1.5 degrees Celsius would mean requiring nations to reduce their planet-warming emissions by 43 percent by 2030 and to stop adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by early 2050s. However, current policies of governments are only expected to reduce fossil fuel emissions by a few percentage points, the increase traced to the pandemic. And today, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, causing skyrocketing oil and gas prices and distracting us from the urgent concern of climate change. Just how realistic or feasible is the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal?

United Nations Secretary General António Guterres minces no words as he addresses the world, “This is a climate emergency,” adding that wealthy economies and corporations “are not just turning a blind eye; they are adding fuel to the flames. They are choking our planet, based on their vested interests and historic investments in fossil fuels, when cheaper, renewable solutions provide green jobs, energy security and greater price stability.”

Scientists say that even half a degree matters. Even if we do not come close to the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal, we cannot just give up because every effort counts towards taming global warming. Half a degree is said to be the difference between a world with coral reefs and Arctic summer sea ice and a world without them. An additional half-degree of warming could mean habitat losses for polar bears, whales, seals and sea birds.

What can be done? The report lists the strategies proposed by scientists and energy experts to help nations make the transition to clean energy.

• All power plants worldwide that generate electricity for homes and factories would have to be cleaned up, relying more on wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal or hydropower.

• Transportation, industry and other segments of the economy need to run on clean electricity rather than fossil fuels. Cars powered by gasoline could be replaced with electric vehicles charged by low-carbon grids. The shift is not easy for batteries for airplanes are still so heavy.

• Take steps to reduce total energy demand by recycling more raw materials and making factories more energy efficient.

• Emissions from deforestation and agriculture, which account for around a fifth of global greenhouse gases, must be dealt with, like global meat production, which emits methane and carbon dioxide. Forests and wetlands need to be spared from destruction as they store carbon dioxide, which is effective in mitigating global warming.

These measures need to be initiated by governments and institutions. It is apparent that there are enormous challenges ahead. For instance, governments in the developing world still need to extend access to electricity and modern cooking fuels for hundreds of millions of the poorest people, which might only be possible in the short term by burning more fossil fuels.

Fatima Denton, director of the United Nations University Institute for Natural Resources in Africa and another author of the report says that greater financial support from wealthy nations to less developed nations is critical, “partly as a matter of fairness and historical responsibility: Western countries that got rich by burning fossil fuels are now effectively telling poor nations that they cannot do the same.” They have seen this as the route to more wealth, more prosperity, more capitalism, Denton adds.

Doing away with the harmful emissions requires overhauling present systems of governments, businesses and even societies as a whole. “That’s not an overnight thing, and it comes with some cost, whether we like it or not,” Denton concedes.

The strategies put forward in the IPCC report may disappoint individuals who are personally committed to mitigate climate change. Individual efforts are not to be rendered insignificant, for every initiative should matter. We are guided by how large a carbon footprint our lifestyles leave.

Some practical suggestions and reminders to reduce our carbon footprints:

• Practice the 5 Rs: refuse, reduce, reuse, rot, recycle.

• Bike more and drive less.

• Conserve water and protect our waterways.

• Eat seasonally, locally and more plants.

• Switch to sustainable, clean energy.

It’s never too late to begin.

*      *      *

Young Writers’ Hangouts on April 23 with Roel Cruz, 2-3 pm. Write Things’ six-day summer workshop “Writefest” (now on its 8th year) on May 16, 18, 20, 23, 25, 27 is now open for registration. Open to 8-17 year olds, it will run 3-4:30 pm every session.

Contact w[email protected].  0945.2273216

Email: [email protected]