When the ad industry is in a self-deprecating mood, it sees itself not unlike the flesh trade, where every client is like a john to be pleased without prejudice. Hence, the “second oldest profession” is its cheesy alias. There is even a joke that asks: What is the difference between the world’s oldest and second oldest profession? The answer is that the former is recession-proof, while the latter isn’t. There’s no business more inclined to unravel at the mere mention of the “R” word. So it will try to deny, deny, deny. Shush, R is a dirty nine-letter word. Paranoia is a natural state in a business that historically is one of the first items eliminated from the client’s budget when the economy is on a downtrend. So there is reason to be anxious.
But last month in the US, after Wall Street, Main Street, and the auto industry, the porn industry was seriously asking for a bailout plan from the government. On the other hand, at last week’s Super Bowl, a slew of clever, entertaining, multi-million ads that were as anticipated as the game itself overflowed, just like in the good old days. So should the gag have reversed the latter and the former? Not really. Because although it seemed like the Super Bowl was impervious to budget cuts, it is neither an accurate predictor nor a financial indicator of the future of advertising.
The Super Bowl is a sociological, if not psychological, phenomenon unto itself. When else does one get the permission to escape from the grim realities of mortgage, diets, stock plunges, credit crunch, extreme weather, family problems and other adult concerns — for just one weekend? It’s time for the endless rounds of beer, and bets are being taken as fast as the pizza! Who wouldn’t want to immerse himself in one of the most awesome maneuvers pulled off by the Pittsburgh Steelers to win their seventh championship title? The Cardinals fought back bravely, with their own miracle plays, but they seemed destined to be trophy-less for the 36th year!
But it’s over now and we’re back to the present. Slowly but surely we are feeling the belt tighten. In some cases, it has turned into a hangman’s noose. The R carnage has started. In North America, Ad Age reported that Omnicom is set to cut 3,500 jobs. Batey Thailand is reportedly folding its operations and retrenching 40 people. BBDO Detroit laid off 22 percent or 145 of its headcount due to Chrysler’s budget slash. In our own neighborhood, ad agencies have begun to trim the excess fat, using the usual tactics of early retirement, pink slips and golden handshakes. It looks like despite the oversold Super Bowl breaks, the second oldest profession will need a bailout plan, too.
The Philippine ad industry is a veteran of recession and shouldn’t scare that easily. After the Ninoy Aquino assassination in 1984, the trade teetered but survived. From 1987 to 1989, it endured nine disruptive coup attempts. In 1998, at the height of the Asian crisis, it looked recession in the eye and didn’t blink. Now that the meltdown can no longer be denied, can the industry still bounce back as it has done time and time again in the past?
Some watchers say that the bubble burst long before 2009. The cracks began when the media service was unbundled from creative. From what was intermittently described as being populated by egoistic, arrogant, self-indulgent creative types, the industry hit the wall after enjoying decades of plenty. Besieged by slashed compensation, fierce competition from networks and media departments-turned-media independents, familiar terra firma shifted convulsively into terra incognito. Begrudgingly, the agency tried to adapt and evolve. But the tumultuous upheaval was compounded by consumers who have turned more skeptical and elusive, while marketing gave way to procurement, commodifying the craft. Now the global depression is undeniably here, even if the Palace says otherwise, or maybe even because of it. Is this the final curtain call for an industry that has long been on the list for being in danger of obsolescence?
The naysayers construe that perhaps the whole house must first burn to the ground so that it can willingly and deliberately rebuild itself into a reinvigorated enterprise. All the old rules will no longer apply. It will be business unusual, with non-traditional business opportunities. This is one of the trends predicted by Dr. Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, a much-sought-after economic analyst and futurist. He observed that recession is a time for innovation, citing that the most productive periods are those that followed from crises.
Recently, Pfizer announced that it had bought its worthy competitor, Wyeth, for a whopping US$68 billion. Three weeks earlier, it retrenched 9,000 employees! Casting the human factor aside for a moment, the company was simply following the fundamental tenet that the cost curve must be lower than the revenue curve in order to grow. With the acquisition, Pfizer will hopefully be able to expand, eventually generating new job opportunities and helping to stabilize unemployment. From the ashes rises a majestic phoenix, leaner, wiser and more agile.
Who’s afraid of the so-called Great Depression II? Certainly it should not be the advertising industry with its track record for thwarting the most ruthless economic assaults. Even when it occasionally shoots itself in the foot or shows a numbing insensitivity and indifference in the face of national tragedy, or chooses to bury its head in the ground rather than voice a stand against oppressive practices — it will survive. Once it bites the bullet and pulls itself up, watch it get relaunched as new, improved, better and possibly bigger, maybe even wiser. Its creative energy will resurface, thumbing its nose at those who foretold its gloomy demise.
There is no business better at reinvention than those who sell reinvention. No one better at rising to the opportunities of a post-crisis Philippines than those that package and sell hope in every tube of lipstick! There is a curious but established correlation between lipstick sales and depression. It has been noted that when women are buying more lipstick than usual, it is an unfailing harbinger of economic setback. Instinctively, women brace themselves for a threat that they can sense. By looking their best, they feel more confident about overcoming the worst crisis. It’s simple logic.
Once again, it’s the mindset that will determine whether the second oldest profession will notch another recession on its well-worn holster. In retrospect, we have firsthand proof that post-crisis can truly usher in brighter prospects. After all, our communications agency, Campaigns and Grey, was born six months after EDSA I. Twenty-three years, four presidents and many crises later, we’re still here, intact and determined to sail through in the most torrential and adversarial financial weather, with no man overboard. After all, I have all shades of lipstick on my dresser. Advertising may be only the second oldest profession, but it might just outlast the first.
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