My economic crystal ball for 2008

This year, 2008, may shape up to be a most exciting year for Philippine big-business leaders due to dynamic competition, hopefully with us, the mass consumers, as the real, ultimate winners in terms of better services, cheaper prices and better-quality products. We should support and encourage more free-market competition in all industries.

May the dynamics of free enterprise by rival giants encourage more investments to boost Philippine economic growth, which has been forecast to become slower than the 2007 rate of seven percent but is still robust at 6.7 percent (according to the Development Bank of Singapore) and 6.4 percent (according to the Asian Development Bank).

Here are the possible scenarios and corporate wars I see in my magic crystal ball:

• GMA-7, the television station led by Yale-educated Atty. Felipe “Henry” Gozon — with executives like SVP for TV Wilma Galvante and Ateneo/Harvard-trained and UP Law valedictorian daughter Atty. Anette Gozon Abrogar — is determined to deliver aggressive blows in ratings and advertising wars through its new telenovelas like those on Captain Barbell, Darna and Dyesebel. Their film unit is revving up for a big Valentine’s movie starring top star Marian Rivera and Richard Gutierrez, co-produced with Mother Lily Y. Monteverde’s Regal Films.

ABS-CBN 2 isn’t conceding leadership in the ratings war under the management of Harvard-educated Eugenio “Gabby” Lopez III. There are talks that top executive Charo Santos-Concio might even be appointed as the new president as part of the effort to bolster the business. Is it true that their movie affiliate, Star Cinema, will soon produce a giant film starring ex-President Erap Estrada with comedian Ai Ai de las Alas?

An unforeseen third force in the multi-billion-peso TV war shouldn’t be taken lightly in 2008: No, my crystal ball doesn’t see skirmishes coming from the still-quiet ABC 5 station, led by tycoon Tony Boy Cojuangco, but possibly from his successor as PLDT big boss: Wharton-educated Manuel “Manny” V. Pangilinan (MVP).

It seems almost certain that the logical progression for the biggest telecoms conglomerate of PLDT/Smart is for MVP to lead it to acquire a major media content provider such as the government-run RPN 9, IBC 13, or both. MVP has access to the huge logistical resources and cash hoard of PLDT/Smart to build up RPN 9 as the next big thing in Philippine television. Will it happen in 2008 to make entertainment in this showbiz-loving republic even more fun and diverse?

• PLDT/Smart under MVP is No. 1 in Philippine telecommunications, but the progressive Globe Telecom of the Ayala Group and its partner, Singapore Telecom, is certain to aggressively challenge that leadership in 2008. This writer’s crystal ball also foresees surprise surges from challenger Sun Cellular of John Gokongwei Jr., with even the possible outright purchase by — or infusion of major investments by — a big foreign group. Will intensifying competition continue to bring down vital telecom rates for us consumers, in this society so interconnected to the world through overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) and by the Philippines’ record-shattering volume of SMS texting?

• In the major leagues of banking in 2008, can taipan George S.K. Ty’s No. 1 Metrobank Group and subsidiary Philippine Savings Bank maintain their lead over Ayala Group’s Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) and the phenomenally fast-growing, cash-rich BDO of the Henry Sy/SM Group? How will these three favorite blue-chip stocks fare in the new year with historic record-low bank interest rates expected to boost businesses?

My magic crystal ball foresees smoldering ambition and restless energies being unleashed this year by a dark horse challenger to the Top 3 coming from Lucio C. Tan’s expected “Wedding of the Year” merger between publicly listed Philippine National Bank (PNB) and the recently un-sequestered Allied Banking Corp.

What are the new plans of these mega-banks to outclass each other in efficiency, aggressive marketing and better services? How can bigger banking groups bolster the private business sector? Expect more megabanks’ mergers and new acquisitions this year.

• In the fashion industry, the No. 1 Bench/Human/Bench Body/Kashieca/Charles & Keith/Pedro/Aldo Group led by Ben Chan and the No. 2, Cebu-based Penshoppe/Oxygen/Memo Group, led by low-profile Bernie Liu, are bullish on 2008. What other groups will also rise this new year to add dynamism and excitement to this industry? Can government and the private sector establish Manila as an important center of Asian fashion with more local brands?

• Though not necessarily in the same league as a San Miguel-versus-Asia Brewery battle royale, one industry showing signs of surprising positive growth is bookstores. Are more people in the Philippines now buying and reading more books?

The traditional supremacy of National BookStore and affiliate Powerbooks is solid, but brash challengers are growing, too, like A Different Bookstore, the audacious Fully Booked (with its amazing new building at The Fort), and other nimble guerrilla players such as second-hand bookshop chain Book Sale. This competition is actually win-win beneficial for all booksellers, helping expand and enlarge the once quite limited book-reading market of the Philippines.

• Last but not least is the favorite industry of our shopaholic republic — the shopping-mall business. This sector is undisputedly led by the No. 1 SM juggernaut, with Robinsons Malls and Ayala Malls playing catch-up. However, dark-horse challengers outside the Big Three are showing exceptional vigor, such as the Waltermart/Abenson Group and the upstart Puregold Group.

“We are confident in continued Philippine economic growth and political stability in 2008,” Basilio Tan, Binondo/Divisoria-based168 Mall chairman, said in a recent exclusive interview with The Philippine STAR. He added that they are expanding in 2008, with P4 billion in new investments to construct a new five-story mall plus two residential condominium towers on their newly acquired, 7,500-square-meter prime lot bounded by Soler Street and C. M. Recto Avenue in Manila.

If the big business leaders are investing and bullish on 2008, why shouldn’t we also be? Let us overcome the chaos and shameless corruption of our many inutile politicians, focus on our businesses and vocations, and help sustain faster economic growth!

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