How would you rate the reliability of PAG-ASA'S weather forecasts?

Alexander Raquepo, Ilocos Sur: There’s a lot to be desired in PAG-ASA’s forecasting abilities. But are they really equipped with the right and modern tools to give us accurate information?

Romeo Caubat, Masbate: I’ll not rate PAG-ASA today because I welcome rains so that my plants can drink plenty of water. Besides, I trust the power of God to protect us.

They’re doing their best

Miguelito Herrera, Cabanatuan City: On a scale of one to 10, I rate PAG-ASA an 8. In fairness to them, they’re doing their job well despite the lack of sophisticated materials to predict an incoming typhoon. Hopefully, the new administration will give in to their request.

Lucas Banzon Madamba, USA: The PAG-ASA employees are doing their best to give up-to-date news about weather occurrences. Modern equipment and facilities are needed to ensure the proper monitoring system of weather occurrences.

Marc Avisado, Ilocos Sur: PAG-ASA is doing its best despite the odds. Filipino scientists are very resourceful, but they need more Doppler radars and other modern monitoring equipment to be more precise in predicting weather conditions nationwide.

Ruben Viray, Antipolo City: A grade of 78 per cent is fair enough. A miscalculation was noted during the recent typhoon that hit Metro Manila by surprise but in fairness to PAG-ASA, their report was based on outmoded and old equipment their office has been relying on for forecasting. Perhaps a more reliable forecast can be made when the new Doppler radars arrive to replace old ones. In the meantime, let’s bear the inadequacy of the old equipment that we have and trust that PAG-ASA will be giving us acceptable forecasting in the days to come. Let’s hope too that the new equipment will arrive soon before the next typhoon comes.

Renato Taylan, Ilocos Norte: PAG-ASA may not have state-of-the-art forecasting instruments but at least 70 per cent of its forecasts are correct, which is fairly good.

Ella Arenas, Pangasinan: I think okay naman considering the fact that their equipment are not reliable. At least they can still deliver, although sometimes palpak din. We can’t blame them.

Ryan Pahimulin, Rizal: Since our legislators refuse to provide them with enough funds and modern equipment, can we really blame PAG-ASA?

Ricardo Tolentino, Laoag City: With outdated equipment and mano-mano tools in forecasting, I rate the forecast of PAG-ASA good enough. We should not blame the agency.

C.B. Manalastas, Manila: In spite of old, outdated equipment, lack of budget, low salaries and dwindling ranks of forecasters, PAG-ASA is doing its best to give us accurate forecasts.

It is unreliable

Kelvin Casamayor, Ilocos Sur: Our weather bureau lacks state-of-the-art equipment and facilities, training and personnel. As a result, it is an unreliable source of weather forecasts.

Lydia Reyes, Bataan: Because of what has happened to us here in Bataan na hanggang ngayon ay brownout, justifiable lang na sermunan ni Pres. Aquino ang PAG-ASA.

Ignacio Anacta, Metro Manila: On a scale of one to 10, I give PAG-ASA’s weather forecast a rating of seven. However, the accuracy of forecasting instruments largely depends on the training, dedication and professionalism of those manning it.

Johann Lucas, Quezon City: I can’t help but feel sorry for PAG-ASA. They were just relying on their instruments and decided to stick to their forecast, even if international weather reports were already pointing to a direct hit by Basyang. I guess they failed to warn Manilans of another scenario which did happen but they found out too late.

Leandro Tolentino, Batangas: The PAG-SA forecasters, the NDCC as well as the new administration in Malacañang all deserve a failing grade in its first encounter with a typhoon.

Eufrocino Linsangan, Isabela: Many times here in our place in Ramon, Isabela, PAG-ASA’s weather forecasts are inaccurate. Basyang is another example. While we’re under storm signal number two, the sun is shining and there’s dust everywhere.

Jeffrey Villar, Capiz: Sa nagdaang bagyong Basyang mukhang nawalan ng pag-asa ang mga nasalanta sa PAG-ASA. Ngek.

There are factors to consider

Ishmael Q. Calata, Parañaque City: In fairness to the people at PAG-ASA, there are certain factors that can render forecasts inaccurate: 1) The equipment used by them. How can they do a good job with antiquated tools and equipment? 2) The path of typhoons here and even the cyclones that come and go in the US may change at any moment. The paths are now more erratic because of climate change. It was only recently that we experienced the crazy path of some typhoons that leave the country’s area of responsibility for a while and then turn back and make re-entry to do more damage. Was Basyang’s path tracked correctly by international weather forecasters? I doubt it. So, I cannot give a rating on the reliability of PAG-ASA weather forecasts because of these. It would be pure guesswork.

Modernization is needed

Cris Rivera, Rizal: With obsolete equipment and manpower lack, our weathermen can only do that much. Extensive upgrading is needed for a better PAG-ASA.

Gerii Calupitan, Muntinlupa City: I pity PAG-ASA. The agency still makes do with outdated equipment while government officials ride the latest SUVs. P-Noy should give top priority to upgrade its equipment. We bikers can predict/induce rain. How? Whenever we wash and wax our iron horses, it rains. P-Noy, don’t berate, update!

Benjamin Nillo, Las Piñas City: PAG-ASA is very unreliable, indeed. Blame it on obsolete weather forecasting equipment rather than their personnel.

Dr. Jose Balcanao, Benguet: I would give the reliability of PAG-ASA’s weather forecasts a rating of seven because it needs more modernization of its instruments that detect and predict weather disturbances. It should receive higher budgetary allocations from Congress. It also needs more manpower and weather experts who were schooled abroad so as not to repeat the great mistakes committed by weathermen particularly in the case of typhoon Frank when the Princess of the Stars sank in Bohol.  

Deo Durante, Camarines Sur: Upgrading PAG-ASA’s equipment will surely change its cobweb image.

The weather is simply erratic

Rodolfo Talledo, Angeles City: They are good but weather is simply erratic. Forecasting is speculative and only God can perfectly divine what will transpire. Give them a break.

Manuel Abejero, Pangasinan: Sanay na ako. Forecast: Two typhoons to hit RP in June. Salamat na lang nagkamali ang PAG-ASA. Ang ikinatatakot ko pag sa gitna ng tag-ulan sabihin.

Dennis Montealto, Mandaluyong City: Even the forecasts of US weather satellites did not accurately pinpoint the path of Basyang, in this particular instance. Somehow, weather forecasters even in other countries can approximate typhoons’ paths but could not explicitly anticipate sudden changes along its way. We can at least thank our own PAG-ASA that it can alert and warn us of impending storms.

Felix Ramento, USA: Given the unpredictability of weather and their antiquated equipment, meeting PAG-ASA’s performance satisfactorily is next to impossible.

Josh Pacatang, Dipolog City: Weather forecasts are just that; they are unreliable as the weather itself. As early as the late ‘60s, a congressman, whose province was devastated by successive storms and typhoons, filed a bill to abolish typhoons. I pity that weatherman dressed down by the President for reporting a southbound storm instead of the other three directions.

Hampered by lack of modern equipment

Roger Caravana, Bulacan: Regarding the performance and reliability of PAG-ASA, I would say that the performance of the weather forecasters are hampered by lack of modern equipment.

Armando Tavera, Las Piñas City: Could have been high if not for their obsolete radars. Time to have those radars replaced with new ones for accuracy of weather forecasting.

Jimmy Donton, Puerto Princesa City: It’s a dismal experience for Pinoys to rely on PAG-ASA’s weather forecasting; however, people working in PAG-ASA are qualified. It is their antiquated equipment that makes forecasting unreliable most of the time. I would rather visit the BBC weather page as I find their five-day weather forecasting more accurate.

We can only blame equipment so much

Dr. Dennis Acop, Baguio City: Up until the recent bawling out of PAG-ASA by the President for its erroneous forecast, I thought PAG-ASA had a high batting average. With inaccurate forecasts peddled by PAG-ASA to no less than the highest official of the land, it is only expected that this official weather bureau will indeed suffer some credibility gap, thanks to the competence of its people. Personally, I think we can only blame equipment so much. At the end of the day and in the final analysis, it is still the human being who is manning the equipment or interpreting it that assumes responsibility.

Disaster management is the answer

Loi Castillo, Davao City: The islands of Luzon, Visayas and parts of Surigao del Norte lie along the path of typhoons, which visit the country yearly. PAG-ASA is doing a great job of giving advisories and forecasts. Masakit mang aminin, hindi nakapaghanda ang taga-Luzon nung dumaan si Basyang. We should look at it the other way around. We should focus on how we should respond to the warnings. Disaster management is still the key. Kaya nga forecast ang tawag, kasi hinulaan ang pwedeng daanan ng isang bagyo base sa datus at mga lumang record.

Ferdinand Rafer, Cavite: We use the weather forecaster as a scapegoat everytime there is a calamity. We are severely affected because we are unprepared.

50-50

Jose Fabello Jr., Cagayan de Oro City: If the prediction is correct, nobody minds them, but if the prediction is wrong everybody is mad, including the President. Reliability? It’s 50-50.

Rey Onate, Palayan City: It’s 50-50. As they say, weder-weder lang.

Ric Vergara, Calamba: Fifty-fifty. It’s time to upgrade its facilities to help save lives and properties. Pangalan lang ng bagyo ang pinaniniwalaan ko sa PAG-ASA.

We rely more on foreign weather bureaus

Edwin Castillo, Tanauan City: Poor. Basyang caught us off-guard that it hit us unexpectedly while we were sleeping. We need a second opinion from foreign weather bureau.

Jim Veneracion, Naga City: PAG-ASA’s weather forecasts are not so reliable that big fishing corporations would rather rely on Japan’s forecast. PAG-ASA has long been ill-equipped.

Lolong Rejano, Marinduque: Before we curse PAG-ASA for their unreliability, we must consider their long clamor to have Doppler radars to effectively monitor weather disturbances that will visits the country, but lo and behold, Congress squandered too much money and resources in useless investigations. As a result, PAG-ASA’s job can be compared to fortune tellers like Madame Auring and Madame Sarah or like betting in cockfights. It’s often better to ask assistance from foreign countries if the budget they requested cannot be allocated by Congress.

It is only as reliable as the government

Edwin Chinel Monares, Rizal: The rate of reliability of PAG-ASA is directly proportional to the corruption and inefficiency in the government. Funds are not spent wisely.

The past administration neglected PAG-ASA

Elizabeth Oximer, Negros Occidental: Unreliable. The blame goes as well to the past administration; PAG-ASA was taken for granted.

Germi Sison, Cabanatuan City: The PAG-ASA people have been doing well as they have been forecasting the weather condition correctly most of the time. It was their antiquated instruments that failed to monitor the exact location of Basyang, its speed and direction. Do not blame the PAG-ASA people but the past administration for spending too much on junkets while neglecting many necessities. P-Noy also has to keep his cool, investigate first to find out the problems and its solutions to avoid offending the sensitivities of government workers who are dedicated to their duties. This is also to call his attention to tap Filipino scientists to explore many possibilities of meeting our many needs.

Rose Leobrera, Manila: We can’t do anything if it’s palpak. Their equipment is just too old to detect the direction of a disturbance. To this I ask, where can PAG-ASA get its budget for up-to-date modern equipment?

William Gonzaga, Marikina City: With Basyang’s horrible destructive aftermath, PAG-ASA is rated a big disaster, no ifs and buts about it. The previous PGMA administration should largely be blamed for doing absolutely nothing to improve PAG-ASA’s weather forecasting capability as proven by the catastrophic “Ondoy” and “Pepeng” events in 2009. Perhaps, President Aquino will finally institute the needed improvement in PAG-ASA to prevent further disaster in coming typhoons thereabouts.

Views expressed in this section do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The STAR. The STAR does not knowingly publish false information and may not be held liable for the views of readers exercising their right to free expression. The publication also reserves the right to edit contributions to this section as it sees fit.

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