Shear line, amihan, ITCZ to bring heavy rains and flooding across the country

Pedestrians use umbrellas and other items to shield themselves from the sudden downpour in Quezon City on May 25, 2024.

MANILA, Philippines — Multiple weather systems are forecast to bring overcast skies and heavy rainfall across Luzon and Visayas on Friday, January 10, heightening the risk of flooding in several areas.

In its 4 a.m. public weather forecast, PAGASA reported that a shear line is influencing weather conditions in Southern Luzon and Visayas, while the northeast monsoon continues to affect Northern and Central Luzon.

The shear line, formed by the convergence of warm air from the easterlies and cool air from the northeast monsoon, is expected to bring cloudy skies, scattered rains and isolated thunderstorms to the Visayas, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA and Quezon. 

The state weather bureau warned of potential flash floods and landslides due to moderate to heavy, and at times intense, rainfall in these areas.

In Cagayan Valley, the Cordillera Administrative Region and Central Luzon, cloudy skies and rain are likely to prevail due to the northeast monsoon or amihan. Flooding and landslides remain possible with moderate to heavy rains anticipated in these regions.

In Mindanao, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) may bring moderate to heavy rains, increasing the risk of floods and landslides in the Caraga and Davao regions. 

For the rest of Mindanao, localized thunderstorms are expected to bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms could trigger flash floods or landslides.

Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon are not expected to experience significant impacts from amihan, apart from partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains, PAGASA said.

Heavy rainfall outlook

As of 8 a.m., PAGASA Southern Luzon issued a red rainfall warning for Northern Samar and Sorsogon due to the shear line, sparking severe flooding in flood-prone areas. Landslides are highly likely in vulnerable zones.

An orange rainfall warning was also issued for Albay, with floods and landslides expected to threaten low-lying communities and areas near rivers. Heavy to intense rainfall, ranging from 100 to 200 millimeters, is forecast over these areas.

A yellow rainfall warning, indicating moderate to heavy rain of 50 to 100 millimeters and potential flooding, was issued for Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Romblon, Eastern Samar, Aklan and Biliran.

Areas already affected by flooding and other hazards may face even more severe impacts from today’s rain.

Wind and sea conditions

Northern Luzon will experience strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas, with waves reaching heights of 2.8 to 4.5 meters.

The eastern sections of Luzon and the Visayas will be affected by moderate to strong winds, accompanied by moderate to rough seas with wave heights ranging from 2.5 to 3.5 meters.

Meanwhile, the rest of the country will see light to moderate winds, with slight to moderate coastal waters and wave heights between 0.6 and 2.5 meters.

No tropical cyclone

PAGASA reported that no low-pressure area or tropical cyclone is being monitored within or outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) and expects this to be the case for the next five days

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