Fewer cyclones forecast for Philippines in 2024 due to El Niño

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines is likely to experience fewer storms in 2024 than the average of 20, as it did last year, due to El Niño, the country’s weather bureau said Tuesday. 

Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s climate monitoring division, said the country may see only 13 to 19 tropical cyclones this year. The Philippines is usually affected by 19 to 20 storms a year on average. 

“From the first quarter to the second quarter of 2024, around two to five cyclones are expected. From July to December, we are anticipating around 11 to 14 cyclones,” Solis said in an interview with state broadcaster People’s Television. 

In 2023, only 11 made landfall or came close to the Philippines. 

PAGASA said in a release last week that a strong El Niño, which brings drier conditions to some parts of the country, is ongoing and may continue until February. Majority of global climate models suggest the phenomenon will likely persist until the March-April-May 2024 season. 

It added that way below normal to way below rainfall conditions are likely over most parts of Luzon and Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, and Zamboanga Peninsula in January. 

By the end of the month, the provinces of Benguet, Kalinga, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Bataan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Cavite, and Palawan may experience drought. 

Solis also warned that 2024 may be “one of the warmest years on record” due to El Niño, with temperatures in some areas in the Philippines reaching more than 40 degrees Celsius. 

Early this month, World Meteorological Organisation chief Celeste Saulo said that 2024 “may be even hotter and more extreme” than 2023 once the full impact of El Niño plays out.