MANILA, Philippines — Donald Trump returns to the White House with his hardline stance against China intact, his skepticism of multilateral alliances well-documented, and his "America First" doctrine set to reshape US foreign policy once again.
Observers say the stakes are clear: Beijing’s increasing expansion in the region will likely push Trump toward a sharper approach to the Philippine alliance, moving past his previous ambivalence.
Yet Trump’s unpredictable leadership style and rejection of traditional alliances also threaten to unravel President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s much-vaunted strategy of chasing closer defense ties with the US under the Biden administration.
"Marcos' Philippines, having invested heavily in the Philippine-US alliance during the Biden administration, stands to lose the most in a Trump presidency," warned Cleve Arguelles, a political science professor, who noted that Trump is “notoriously transactional” and “unpredictable.”
As seen during his first presidency — from imposing tariffs and sanctions to bypassing multilateral agreements — Trump “often acts unilaterally when dealing with international issues like China,” Arguelles told Philstar.com.
“Should Washington under Trump decide to withdraw support to Manila in the face of increased pressure from Beijing in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea, we will be left on our own to deal with a provoked aggressive and powerful neighbor," Arguelles said.
Amid intensifying rivalry with China, the US ramped up its military presence in the South China Sea starting in 2017, when Trump was first elected.
But it was also during his term that then-Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana had described the US as being “ambivalent” to the decades-old defense pact that compels it to support the Philippines if it is attacked by another party.
At the time, the US was non-committal on whether it would defend the Philippines in the event of an attack, especially in the South China Sea. Lorenzana ordered a review of its mutual defense treaty with the US in 2018.
Months later, US officials assured the Philippines that the US would come to its defense in case of an armed attack.
However, Trump’s detachment from the geopolitical concerns of its longest treaty ally in the region would rear its head again. In 2020, former President Rodrigo Duterte threatened to terminate an accord that allowed US troops to train in the country. Trump said he wouldn’t “mind” seeing the deal trashed.
Now, the challenge for Manila, as geopolitical analyst Julio Amador III said, will be positioning itself within Trump's transactional worldview.
"America First will probably be defined in a way that allies or partners that advance this interest can benefit. It is up to the Philippines to find ways to work with the US under Trump,” Amador said.
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“I do not think there would be a 180-degree turn under Trump 2.0. What we should do is define our foreign policy more clearly to see where the Philippines and the US will converge,” he added.
For Arguelles, the lay of the land is this: While the Philippines' colonial ties with the US may provide some protection against major policy shifts, the “potential uncertainty, if not unreliability, of US as a Philippine partner will probably deepen existing concerns” on the long-term value of the two nations’ alliance.
The stability of military cooperation may provide a crucial buffer against a total disruption of the Philippines’ South China Sea strategy, said Rommel Ong, professor at the Ateneo School of Government.
“I believe that the existing military-to-military collaboration between [the Armed Forces of the Philippines] and [United States Indo-Pacific Command] will continue, such as in the form of military exercises and official visits," Ong, a retired vice admiral of the Philippine Navy, told Philstar.com.
However, Ong noted that the Philippines’ attempts to shield itself from China’s coercive economic practices could take a hit. "What might merit a second look from Trump are the interventions to help the country enhance its resiliency against Chinese economic coercion,” he said.
Ultimately, Ong said the leadership change points to the need for the Philippines to diversify its security partnerships. This includes the pursuit of a trilateral arrangement with the US and Japan, as well as agreements with like-minded states such as Australia, Canada, India, South Korea, and other states in Europe.
“This is precisely to avoid disruptions such as changes in leadership and shifts in nature of domestic politics, particularly in the US,” Ong added.